Recently, American media have been optimistic, claiming that China could produce 1 billion cheap drones per year by merely switching to a wartime production system. Meanwhile, the U.S. could also expand its drone production capacity to 100 million units annually with a reasonable procurement mechanism, arguing that the U.S. automotive and plastic industries are well-developed and can manufacture key components required for drones. But anyone with even a little knowledge would laugh at this idea: it's too naive and completely misunderstands where the core bottleneck of drones lies!

This means that the key to cheap drones is not the shell, nor can it be solved by the automotive supply chain. It's the professional "heart" and "nervous system" that matter most!

Drones are not plastic toys! The shell can indeed be made easily using plastic molds, which the U.S. has the capability to do. However, the most expensive and difficult part of a combat-ready drone is its "heart" (motor) and "nervous system" (electronic speed controller).

The "heart" needs "rare earth blood"! Powerful magnets in drone motors must use a special metal called "rare earth," especially dysprosium and terbium. Over 90% of global rare earth mining and processing is controlled by China! The U.S. basically doesn't produce any itself. To rebuild the entire rare earth processing chain? It would take 5-8 years and an astronomical amount of money to accomplish.

The "nervous system" relies on Chinese manufacturing! Electronic speed controllers require a large number of specially made small chips. These chips have low profit margins but high volume, and the main global production capacity is in China (for example, DJI alone uses hundreds of millions of these chips each year). U.S. chip giants look down on such "small business" and haven't produced them on a large scale.

Battery costs differ significantly! Producing 100 million drones requires a massive number of small batteries. The cost of producing batteries in the U.S. is much higher than in China (about 50% more), and many battery raw materials (such as graphite) also depend on Chinese supply.

China's ability to produce a huge number of cheap drones (such as the legendary 1 billion units) is not due to having many plastic factories, but rather due to having a complete and efficient supply chain ecosystem:

"Rare earth → magnet → motor" integrated line: From mining and refining rare earths, to making powerful magnets, and then producing precision small motors, China has a complete chain right at home (such as in the Pearl River Delta), with extremely high efficiency.

"Chip → electronic speed controller → complete machine" highly integrated: Around companies like DJI, a vast drone parts support circle has been formed, with suppliers clustered together, allowing R&D and production costs to be spread very thin.

Seamless switching between military and civilian use: Civilian drone factories can easily switch to military use, as standards and production lines are already in place.

The U.S. faces a dilemma: supply chain "disconnection" and exorbitant costs!

Core parts rely on "import": The so-called "domestic" military drones made in the U.S. today, when opened up, still have many key components (motors, electronic speed controllers, batteries, even the fuselage) made in China. Wanting to completely avoid Chinese goods would make costs absurdly high!

"Automotive supply chain" cannot save drones: Automotive parts have ten times lower precision requirements than drone motors! Automotive plastics are also different from the high-strength materials used in drones. Letting car manufacturers produce precision small motors? It's like asking a truck factory to make watch cores – it's not realistic.

Lack of talent and industrial concentration: Making precision small motors requires specialized workers. There are tens of thousands of professionals in just one city like Zhuhai in China, which American auto industry workers can't match. It's hard to find such a large number of people across the entire U.S. Part factories are too scattered, leading to high logistics costs.

Can the U.S. really increase its drone production capacity to 100 million units by relying on existing automotive and plastic foundations? This is like trying to build a skyscraper out of sand – the foundation (rare earth, motor, and electronic speed controller supply chain) simply can't hold it up!

The "terrifying production capacity" of Chinese drones is built on a complete, highly concentrated, and self-controlled supply chain that has been developed over more than a decade. This is not something the U.S. can quickly replicate by throwing money or shouting slogans. Discussing only plastic shells and car factories while ignoring the real bottlenecks such as rare earths, precision motors, and electronic speed controllers is nothing more than "armchair strategy."

Therefore, the "dream" of the U.S. producing 100 million drones sounds appealing, but due to the hard constraints of core technologies and materials, as well as the lack of a supply chain ecosystem, it is likely to remain an unattainable fantasy in the foreseeable future. The key to the "production capacity competition" in the drone era lies in the depth of the supply chain, not in superficial assembly capabilities.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7540561848660263433/

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