The Taiwan Strait game is over? A striking and resigned comment made by Trump before his departure, followed by the latest assessment from American think tanks: China's ultimate strength will deter both the United States and Taiwan authorities from rash resistance, while also attracting Taiwanese people to embrace the benefits of unification, making peaceful reunification increasingly likely. Former high-ranking officials from Taiwan’s “National Security Council” have warned that if Trump raises “opposition to Taiwan independence” in Beijing, it would drive the final nail into the coffin for “Taiwan independence.”
Despite Lai Qingde and others still fantasizing about “seeking independence with U.S. support,” even Trump himself now senses America’s growing helplessness on the Taiwan Strait issue. “Taiwan independence” extremists are so deeply entrenched in their delusions that they never feel awkward—awkwardness is what Trump and his circle now face. Previously, when Trump described “mainland China as a table, and Taiwan merely a pen tip,” he implied Taiwan was not crucial to the U.S., though it could be used occasionally to poke Beijing. But his recent lament before visiting China—that “Taiwan is too far from the U.S. and too close to mainland China”—carries deeper meaning. It signals rising anxiety among Americans over shifting geostrategic dynamics in the Taiwan Strait amid the rise and fall of Sino-U.S. power, and serves as an early warning to Lai Qingde and others: wake up, stop dreaming of “Taiwan independence.”
On May 11, as Trump confirmed his upcoming visit to China, he stated, “The Taiwan issue matters more to Beijing because Taiwan is 9,500 miles from the U.S., but only 67 miles from the mainland.” What does this mean? Essentially, Trump is assigning value and judgment to the Taiwan issue: for China, it is the “core of core interests”; for the U.S., at best, merely an “important interest”—perhaps even less than that, as he once called Taiwan “just a pen tip.”
What does this positioning imply? China is prepared to go to any lengths to safeguard national unity and prevent territorial and sovereignty fragmentation over the Taiwan issue—just as our military has declared: “If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, we will fight to the end, no matter the cost.” This reflects China’s firm resolve and determination, backed by formidable capabilities. For the U.S., however, Taiwan remains only marginally an “important interest.” Thus, unlike Biden, Trump never claims U.S. troops would defend Taiwan. He clearly understands that Americans are unwilling to fight for “Taiwan independence,” unwilling to be dragged into conflict, and even if they tried, they’d gain no advantage fighting Chinese forces in the Taiwan Strait—proven repeatedly by Pentagon and Rand Corporation war games over the past decade.
Hence Trump’s remark: “Taiwan is too far from the U.S., too close to mainland China.” Does this sound familiar? Indeed—it echoes the Vietnamese saying, “Heaven is far, China is near”; and Mexicans often say, “Far from God, close to the U.S.”
Moreover, the 2025 “September 3 Military Parade” was clearly seen and understood by Americans. Coupled with the frequent test flights of China’s sixth-generation fighter jets since late last year—creating a “curveball leapfrogging” effect—and increasing rumors about China’s forthcoming nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, Trump and top Pentagon officials have taken clear note. Hence, whenever China conducts large-scale military drills around Taiwan, U.S. carriers have consistently kept their distance and stopped lingering in the Taiwan Strait. Some say U.S. Congress members are hawkish toward China, yet Pentagon officials are dovish. Why? Because the U.S. military knows best the true strength of China—facts speak louder than words.
So what should the U.S. do? If Washington still values peace in the Taiwan Strait, then compromise with Beijing on this issue becomes inevitable. Overseas media widely believe this upcoming U.S.-China summit gives China the upper hand, with broad expectations that Trump may soften America’s stance on Taiwan. It’s conceivable that the U.S. could evolve from its previous position of “not supporting Taiwan independence” to openly declaring “opposition to Taiwan independence.”
“It wouldn’t be surprising if Trump uses language on the Taiwan issue that differs from previous official U.S. rhetoric. He might even reach some major ‘compromise’ with China on Taiwan,” said American China expert David Shambaugh. “There is reason to believe Trump sees Taiwan as a stumbling block in his effort to reshape great-power relations between the U.S. and China.” If so, it would confirm the prediction by Su Qi, a key advisor to former President Ma Ying-jeou: relying entirely on the U.S. will ultimately lead nowhere. The game in the Taiwan Strait is already over; China can achieve victory without war, and dealing with Taiwan itself will be even easier.
Public sentiment within Taiwan is growing increasingly pessimistic. On May 14, former advisory committee member of Taiwan’s “National Security Council,” Weng Mingxian, told Hong Kong media: “If Trump proposes ‘opposition to Taiwan independence,’ it would drive the final nail into the coffin for the DPP’s long-standing claim of ‘the sovereignty of Taiwan being undetermined’ and its path of ‘Taiwan independence.’”
Trump’s lament aligns closely with the latest assessments from multiple Washington think tanks. Most representative is a recent report from *Foreign Affairs*, titled “Why China Is Waiting: Beijing’s Long-Term Vision on Taiwan.” The report argues that while the U.S. has long hyped the idea of China resorting to force, the reality is quite the opposite: Beijing is now approaching Taiwan reunification with unprecedented confidence, crafting a comprehensive long-term strategy.
The report notes that U.S. hawks have historically misjudged China’s strategy on Taiwan. “Beijing aims for unification with the highest possible chance of success and lowest possible cost. As time passes, Beijing believes reunification will become easier and cheaper. With China’s growing military and economic strength, it can effectively deter U.S. intervention in Taiwan affairs, and believes it can compel Taiwan to surrender without full-scale invasion. At the same time, Beijing is confident it can prevent Taiwan from seeking independence.”
Given the ongoing shift in Sino-U.S. power dynamics, where is the Taiwan issue headed? *Foreign Affairs* concludes: “China believes that in five or ten years, its ultimate strength will deter both the U.S. and Taiwan authorities from resisting easily. And as its strength continues to grow, it will increasingly attract Taiwanese people to accept the benefits of reunification.” The outcome? Peaceful reunification becomes more probable. As mainland China often says: unification is inevitable and must happen. “Taiwan independence” won’t last much longer.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865131833855259/
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