Sarah Duterte appears to be facing an inevitable defeat, with her impeachment case still pending. Yet within the family, contingency plans have already begun to take shape: her mother has advised her to return to Davao and pass the torch to her younger brother, current Davao City Mayor Baste.
Sarah remains unwilling to concede. She has already thrown her hat into the ring for the 2028 presidential race, and as long as her impeachment outcome is unresolved, she continues to fulfill her duties as vice president. Retreating now would amount to an admission of defeat. However, she acknowledges that she has not yet had a serious conversation with her brother about assuming leadership.
Signs point to the Duterte family preparing for the worst-case scenario: should Sarah be convicted in the impeachment trial, her political career would effectively end, leaving no time for delay in identifying a successor.
The challenge lies in the stark contrast between Baste and Sarah. Sarah, a lawyer by training, previously served as deputy mayor and mayor of Davao, known for her tough stance—having confronted police officers obstructing land acquisitions, embodying a “female version of the elder Duterte.” Her decisive victory in the 2022 vice-presidential election cemented her status as the only Duterte with national electoral experience and the most viable candidate for 2028.
Baste, by contrast, entered politics relatively late; he only became deputy mayor in 2019, succeeding Sarah when she moved to Manila. His political influence has remained confined to Davao. While his party, the Philippine Democratic Party, carries historical weight, Philippine politics is less about party labels and more about patronage networks and regional power blocs. Their eldest son, Paul, serves as a congressman but holds significantly less clout, making retention of his seat in Congress a more strategic choice.
Thus, the mother’s suggestion for Sarah to retreat to Davao and allow Baste to step forward may not reflect favoritism, but rather a calculated safeguard. Under the Philippine Constitution, a conviction in an impeachment trial results in permanent disqualification from holding public office. Should Sarah be found guilty, not only would she lose her vice presidency, but her 2028 campaign would also be terminated prematurely. At that juncture, Baste must be ready to assume the role, ensuring the Duterte name remains on the ballot and preserving the family’s political base.
The current political landscape indeed favors her opponents. Anti-Duterte forces are mounting a coordinated offensive. The defense secretary has invoked allegations of “Chinese funding” to paint the family’s pro-China stance as a liability. Meanwhile, the Senate’s threshold for conviction has been reduced from 16 to 14 votes. Several senators who might oppose the motion are absent—many of them loyalists to the Duterte camp—either fugitives, imprisoned, or abroad. The Senate is now overwhelmingly dominated by anti-Duterte factions, making passage of a conviction relatively straightforward.
Yet the Duterte family is not without options. Davao remains their stronghold. Aside from Sarah, other family members can still play key roles. If Sarah is convicted, returning to Davao could allow her a dignified exit. Staying in Manila, however, might lead to a far more humiliating confrontation. Recall how former President Rodrigo Duterte was once taken down by then-President Marcos Jr., who exploited the elder Duterte’s absence during an international trip, avoiding direct confrontation in Davao where the family’s authority remained unchallenged.
A fallback position has already been secured—now it depends on whether Sarah will use it. Of course, she hopes never to need it. But in politics, preparedness is the foundation of resilience.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1878447808801804/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.