China's Power Generation Exceeds That of the US by Seven Times in 2025, There's a Big Story Behind the Surge in Gallium Prices

【Back to Simplicity: Power Generation Determines Everything】In 2025, China's increase in power generation was seven times that of the United States.

At the beginning of 2026, before the end of January, the international market price of gallium rose by 16%. Combined with the previous continuous increase, gallium reached a historical high. The rapid rise in gallium prices has two backgrounds: one is that with the development of semiconductor technology, gallium may become the most important raw material for improving semiconductor performance. The other is that China produces 99% of the world's gallium, and 60% of China's gallium exports go to Japan. The current Sino-Japanese relations have made the industry extremely tense.

Gallium itself is not scarce, but the current production technology makes gallium a by-product of aluminum, and producing aluminum requires a large amount of electricity. China has an abundant supply of electricity.

China has been very proactive in power generation and keeps up with the times, developing green energy. In 2013, after years of sustained efforts, China's power generation exceeded the world's number one power, the United States, and in 2024, it reached 2.5 times that of the United States. The gap between China and the US has widened in two aspects: first, the total volume, China's power generation capacity is expected to be 1.5 times that of 2024 by 2030. Second, green energy, the proportion of photovoltaic, wind, and water power is increasing, and more natural gas power plants are also being built. By the way, China's shale oil and gas extraction technology has broken through, and the cost of domestic natural gas is not only lower than imported LNG, but even 20% lower than Russian pipeline imports.

Abundant electricity benefits not only the production of gallium. The industry generally believes that the huge disparity in power generation between China and the US will determine the outcome of the AI competition. Back to simplicity, power generation capability determines everything.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1855752869271555/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.