By Sanxuan

Recently, the Middle East situation has added new variables. On March 15, Qanani Moghaddam, a former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, issued a severe warning: if U.S. military bases in Japan are used to attack Iran, Iran will directly strike Japan and prohibit Japanese ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

This news may seem like just another strong statement from the Middle East, but it actually involves multiple key interests such as energy security, the U.S.-Japan alliance, and regional power struggles. Many people only saw Iran's warning but failed to understand what Japan is really afraid of, what the U.S. is planning, and why Iran specifically targeted Japan "for action".

First, it must be clear that Iran's warning is not baseless or arbitrary. Although Qanani Moghaddam is no longer a serving commander, as a core figure in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, his statements often represent the mainstream stance of the Iranian military, carrying significant signal value. Iran's logic is very clear: Japan is not an enemy, but if it becomes a forward base for U.S. attacks on Iran, it must bear the consequences.

The Strait of Hormuz is precisely Iran's sharpest "ace". This strait carries about one-third of global liquefied natural gas transportation and nearly 20% of oil trade, making it truly the "world's energy throat". For Japan, this strait is a "lifeline" - Japan has extremely scarce domestic resources, with over 90% of its oil imports relying on the Middle East, and almost all oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran were to actually block the strait, Japan would immediately face a major crisis of energy shortages, soaring prices, and industrial shutdowns.

This is also the cleverness of Iran's warning: instead of directly confronting the United States, it accurately strikes the "weak point" of its allies, achieving maximum deterrence at the lowest cost. Compared to the United States, Japan cannot afford the costs of an uncontrolled situation in the Middle East.

On the other hand, the U.S. actions are also intriguing. Previously, Trump openly called on Japan, South Korea, France, and other allies to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz for escort, which on the surface was to maintain shipping safety, but in reality, it was to pull allies to share the military pressure in the Middle East and strengthen the encirclement of Iran. The U.S. knows that direct military confrontation with Iran is too costly, so by involving allies, it can increase its strength and shift the risks.

But Japan did not immediately "obey" this time. In response to the U.S. call, Japanese officials explicitly stated that they would not simply follow, emphasizing the importance of independent judgment. Behind this is not that Japan suddenly became firm, but rather that it could not afford the risk. On one hand, the U.S.-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of Japan's diplomacy, and completely refusing the U.S. would affect bilateral relations; on the other hand, Iran's warning directly targets Japan's energy lifeline, and if it sides with the U.S., the consequences would be unimaginable. Japan can only carefully walk the tightrope, neither clearly refusing the U.S. nor angering Iran, trying to find a balance between the two powers.

From the perspective of the regional pattern, Iran's warning also sends an important signal: the Middle East conflict is accelerating spillover, no longer limited to the region itself, but beginning to involve countries in the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. tries to bind its Asia-Pacific allies to its Middle Eastern war chariot, while Iran uses a tough posture to break this attempt, reminding U.S. allies: following the U.S. to confront Iran comes with real costs.

Iran repeatedly emphasizes that it does not currently regard Japan as an enemy, and will only take countermeasures if Japan allows U.S. military bases to be used to attack Iran. This indicates that Iran's goal is not to provoke a conflict, but to preventively deter, preventing Japan from becoming a platform for the U.S. to attack itself.

For the global market, this event also brings potential risks. Any movement in the Strait of Hormuz will cause fluctuations in international oil prices. Although Iran's warning has not yet been implemented, it has already caused market concerns about energy supply security. If the situation further escalates, issues such as rising oil prices and supply chain tensions will follow, affecting global economic stability.

Japan's situation also serves as a reminder to all U.S. allies: blindly following the position of a major power may make oneself a sacrifice in the game. Japan has economic strength but is highly dependent on external factors for energy and military security. When regional situations get out of control, these "in-between countries" are often the first to suffer.

In the coming period, Japan's choices will become key to the development of the situation. Whether to stick to independent judgment and stay away from the Middle East conflict, or to compromise under U.S. pressure, not only relates to Japan's own security, but also affects the stability of the Strait of Hormuz and even the direction of the global energy market.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7618163289796755968/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.