The World: Things Are Changing: The EU’s Trade Policy Toward China Is Moving Toward Proactive Defense

On Friday, October 9, European Commission Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis is set to meet with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Beijing to discuss ways to reduce the growing trade imbalance between China and the European Union. A Tuesday article in Le Monde suggests that this time, Dombrovskis will arrive in Beijing with stronger leverage. Crucially, internal attitudes within the EU have shifted.

Shifting Attitudes Within the EU

In 2025, the EU's trade deficit with China reached €360 billion—nearly €1 billion per day. Meanwhile, an increasing volume of Chinese goods continues to enter European markets, while European exports to China have not kept pace.

For years, divisions have persisted within the EU on issues related to trade with China. Germany, in particular, has maintained a cautious stance. The reason is straightforward: German industries such as automotive, machinery, and chemicals have long relied on the Chinese market. As a result, Berlin has consistently feared that adopting a tougher posture toward China could trigger retaliatory measures, ultimately harming German businesses. But the situation has now changed.

Chinese competition is now directly undermining Germany’s industrial base. German automakers are losing market share in China, and domestic layoffs have become widespread. Consequently, Berlin’s position has undergone a clear shift, with growing support across the country for the need to protect Europe’s own industrial sector.

Le Monde also cited sources from the Elysée Palace indicating that a consensus has formed across the EU: the current trade imbalance with China is unsustainable. There is mounting awareness throughout Europe of the severity of the issue.

This internal shift represents a fundamental change in direction.

France and Germany Call for EU Initiative

This transformation is most clearly reflected in a joint proposal by France and Germany.

At the beginning of October, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz jointly wrote to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, urging the creation of new trade defense instruments.

A key recommendation involves reducing European reliance on single countries or suppliers—particularly in sectors such as batteries, critical raw materials, and clean energy equipment. This signals a move away from prioritizing only the most efficient supply chains. Instead, security of supply is now being factored into strategic decision-making.

Even more significant is a second proposal: the EU should be able to act swiftly, and under certain circumstances, restrict a country’s access to the EU’s single market.

Furthermore, France and Germany advocate lowering the threshold for initiating such measures. Historically, European trade defense actions required lengthy investigations and complex procedures. Moving forward, Paris and Berlin want the European Commission to act more rapidly.

In an accompanying document, the two leaders recommended revising the EU’s current voting rules. Under the proposed framework, the Commission could proceed with trade defense measures to protect a specific sector unless a qualified majority of member states formally oppose them. In other words, prior unanimous approval would no longer be required.

This effectively points toward the EU’s attempt to develop a rapid-response mechanism akin to Section 301 of U.S. trade law.

Ramzy’s Vision

Meanwhile, Pascal Lamy, former Director-General of the World Trade Organization, offered his own perspective in an interview with Le Monde.

His logic is straightforward: Europe can allow a certain volume of Chinese goods into its market, subject to lower tariffs within that range. However, once imports exceed a defined threshold, automatic safeguards must kick in, triggering higher tariffs.

An important feature of Lamy’s proposed mechanism is that it does not target individual products. Instead, it could be activated based on indicators such as sudden surges in import volumes, sharp price declines, increased government subsidies, or currency intervention. Measures could be lifted once market conditions return to normal.

Regardless, European Commission Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis’s upcoming visit to Beijing will not be without leverage. He now holds significantly stronger cards than in previous engagements.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1878342249444352/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.