[Military and Weapons Section] Author: Golden Bomber
On May 28, French President Emmanuel Macron and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met in Jakarta, where the two countries signed an initial defense cooperation agreement involving a package of military equipment procurement plans, including Scorpène submarines and light frigates, among other military equipment. The specific quantities have yet to be confirmed. However, the most attention-grabbing aspect was the view of the French media outlet OpexNews, which suggested that Indonesia had increased its order for "Rafale" fighter jets, with the quantity possibly ranging between 8 and 16 aircraft, depending on Indonesia's defense budget.
▲Rafale Fighter Jet
This statement has attracted significant attention, as it was widely rumored after the Indo-Pakistani air combat that Indonesia began to question the combat capability of the Rafale fighter jets and even considered canceling the purchase contract with France. So why would it suddenly increase its orders now? This situation of "the more the Rafale loses, the more it sells" is indeed somewhat perplexing.
In short, the previous claim about re-examining the Rafale fighter jet purchase order was just unreasonable speculation by certain media outlets, or even baseless guesses. From a realistic perspective, the cancellation of the Rafale procurement case is highly unlikely. There are several reasons for this: First, this claim has already been denied by the Indonesian government. Hong Kong's South China Morning Post reported on May 14 that after Pakistan shot down India's Rafale, it caused concerns within Indonesia regarding the $8.1 billion Rafale procurement deal. It mentioned that the Indonesian Defense Ministry had initiated a review of the credibility of the Rafale's combat capabilities, possibly pausing or adjusting the order. However, in a report on May 20 by the Eurasia Times, an Indonesian Defense Ministry official clearly stated that the reports about suspending the procurement were "unverified information." Indonesia's purchase of French fighter jets was not impulsive but based on a long-term strategic plan, which required replacing the country's aging F-16 and Su-27 fleets.
▲OpexNews reported that Indonesia increased its Rafale order
The Indonesian authorities stated that the plan is still progressing, with the first batch of six Rafale fighter jets expected to arrive by early 2026. Meanwhile, Indonesian military officials emphasized that the claim that Pakistan shot down a Rafale has yet to be independently verified, and India's official side has not provided clear details of the losses. Neither the Dassault Company nor the French government has provided credible evidence, so there will be no change in the established defense procurement strategy.
On May 15, in the Jakarta Post, the former Chief of Staff of the Indonesian Air Force and Chairman of the Indonesian Air Power Research Center expressed exactly the same viewpoint. He claimed that Pakistan exaggerated the loss situation of the Rafale, which was almost identical to Dassault's statement. He believed that the outcome of India's air combat depended on multiple factors such as tactical training and system integration, rather than solely on the fighter platform itself. Additionally, in military conflicts in Libya, Mali, Syria, and elsewhere, the Rafale had already demonstrated its formidable performance as a 4.5-generation fighter. The Indo-Pakistani conflict, as a single event, was insufficient to completely negate its value. From these statements, it is evident that the Indonesian government has never denied the value of the Rafale at the official level, and the attitudes of other media outlets cannot represent the stance of the Indonesian government.
▲Meeting between the French President and the Indonesian President
Secondly, Indonesian defense experts clearly pointed out that canceling the order does not align with Indonesia's interests. Indonesia's own defense resources are very limited, and the $8.1 billion price tag is already quite high. The contract stipulates the purchase of 30 single-seat models and 12 twin-seat models of the Rafale, totaling 42 aircraft, with the unit price approaching $200 million. The contract includes a breach clause, meaning if Indonesia unilaterally causes the contract to be unfulfillable, it must pay 30% of the contract breach penalty, amounting to $2.5 billion. France specifically offered "installment payment" services, allowing Indonesia to pay the total procurement amount in three phases. However, once the contract is signed, the breach clause immediately takes effect. Moreover, France only starts construction after receiving payment, ensuring maximum protection of its own interests. If Indonesia fails to pay, breaches the contract, or delays payments, the ultimate loser will be itself. Indonesia obtained funds through a Qatar-based consortium and French government guarantees, which need to be repaid with interest, potentially stretching over a decade. If there is a breach of contract, credit issues arise, making it difficult to seek further assistance.
More importantly, Indonesia would be blacklisted by the French government and arms manufacturers, and any future cooperation would be impossible. Analyzing from the above two perspectives, the likelihood of Indonesia breaching the contract is already extremely low. The review itself is merely a formality and does not indicate a real intention to cancel cooperation with France or to actively lean towards purchasing J-10 fighters from China.
▲J-10 Fighter Jet
Although French media considers the claim of Indonesia increasing its Rafale fighter jet orders to be speculative, it is absolutely reasonable and much more credible than the idea of "switching to purchase J-10 fighters." Many of Indonesia's comments regarding the "Rafale vs. J-10" debate have been significantly influenced by France. For example, after the air combat on May 7, regarding the loss status of the Rafale, the French government's response was "I don't know, don't ask me," consistently emphasizing that both Pakistan and India often exaggerated their own achievements during wartime. Given the inability to send a third party for independent verification, there remains uncertainty about whether any Rafale aircraft were shot down, with the attitude primarily being one of "confusion." Dassault's statement was clearer than the French government's, emphasizing "India's lack of experience in using fighter jets" and "air combat depends on various factors," neither confirming nor denying the claim that the Rafale was shot down. However, it is evident from their words that the blame was placed on the Indian Air Force's pilots rather than the aircraft itself, subtly implying that "it is fate that doomed India, not the inadequacy of the fighting." Despite France's arrogant attitude, which is annoying and evasive, there were many overlapping factors contributing to Pakistan shooting down the Rafale: the narrow airspace over the Kashmir region, which is challenging for pilots of any nation; the lack of their own airborne early warning support while facing ZDK-03 with superior performance; complacency due to believing they were in their own airspace without considering that opponents had learned the secrets of beyond-visual-range air combat from China, etc. Ignoring these factors and simply attributing the defeat to "the Rafale being inadequate" is indeed unreasonable. In summary, if Indonesia's additional procurement is true, it is far from being as simple as "the more the Rafale loses, the more it sells." With a little brainpower, France could reduce the price of the next batch of Rafales slightly, improve the technical content of the undelivered Rafale aircraft, such as upgrading the radar and throwing in a couple of missiles for free, and it would be enough to convince Indonesia. Indonesia has always expressed absolute loyalty and confidence in purchasing the Rafale, and with France actively offering benefits, rumors about canceling the order naturally dissipate. Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7510099272008729128/ Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Please express your opinion by clicking the "thumbs up/thumbs down" button below.