After nearly 10 months, Putin, who has always been silent and evasive, suddenly apologized in front of the president of a neighboring country. He not only admitted to the mistakes he had made but also offered compensation. However, he also put forward a key request.

Aliyev and Putin

Recently, during the CIS summit held in Tajikistan, Putin held a bilateral meeting with the president of a neighboring country, Aliyev. To everyone's surprise, at the beginning of the meeting, Putin brought up an "unsettling issue" between the two countries, which shocked everyone present. What came next was even more unexpected—Putin said "I'm sorry."

In front of Aliyev, Putin clearly stated that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash that occurred in December last year was caused by a technical failure in the Russian air defense system, which led to a mistaken missile launch. Russia is willing to take responsibility and promised compensation. After nearly 10 months, Russia changed its previous attitude of evasion, drawing attention from the international community.

As is well known, this incident, regarded by Azerbaijan as a "national trauma," became the catalyst for the sharp deterioration of Russian-Azerbaijani relations. Russia's silence triggered a strong reaction from Azerbaijan, leading to the closure of the Russian satellite news agency branch, the arrest of Russian citizens, and Aliyev's refusal to attend the 2025 Russian Victory Day parade. Instead, he signed an energy cooperation memorandum with Ukraine.

The crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane

From shifting blame to apologizing, Russia's change in attitude carries significant implications. In this meeting, Putin provided a detailed explanation of the cause of the crash for the first time. At that time, three Ukrainian drones entered Russian airspace, and the Russian air defense system launched two missiles. The missiles did not directly hit the Azerbaijan Airlines plane, but exploded several meters away from it, and the fragments struck the plane.

Moreover, the Russian side had previously suggested that Azerbaijani pilots make an emergency landing at a Russian airport, but the pilots insisted on returning to Azerbaijan, ultimately causing the crash. Putin's explanation was quite clever, conveying two key messages: first, the Russian action was not intentional, just an accident. Second, the Russian side provided an emergency risk avoidance plan, but the Azerbaijani pilots did not follow it.

Putin meeting with Aliyev

This means that although Putin admitted there was a "mistake," Russia was not entirely at fault. Now, Russia is willing to admit full responsibility, which is giving face to Azerbaijan. At the same time, Putin clearly stated the purpose of his apology, which is to rebuild bilateral relations and maintain the "spirit of the alliance."

The Caucasus region has always been seen by Russia as its "southern gate." To safeguard national security, Russia has strongly controlled this area, preventing external forces from interfering. Azerbaijan is crucial in this regard. Russia has two important geopolitical economic projects in the Caucasus: one is the east-west corridor, and the other is the north-south corridor, both of which are important energy trade routes for Russia.

Azerbaijani freight train

The key point is that both of these corridors must pass through Azerbaijan. Putin's conciliatory gesture toward Azerbaijan comes against the backdrop of Russia facing comprehensive Western encirclement. With this context, it becomes clear that Azerbaijan has become an irreplaceable economic partner for Russia.

Additionally, Azerbaijan's "balancing act" has shifted when Russia is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. Its "peace partnership" with NATO and deep military cooperation with Israel have already posed potential threats to Russia's southern security. In this situation, stabilizing the surrounding relationships has become a priority for Russia. If the Russian-Azerbaijani relationship were to break down, it would ultimately be Russia that suffers the most.

From the photos, it can also be seen that Aliyev, who received Russia's apology, stood straighter. Ten years ago, Russia was still seen as the dominant force in the Caucasus. Now, Putin's apology reflects a subtle shift in the balance of power in the region.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559457670428705295/

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