Recognizing Afghanistan, Russia consolidates its core position in Eurasia
July 7, 2025, 16:00・Opinion
The diplomatic blockade of Kabul has been broken, and the United States will have to completely reassess its strategy in the region: this is an important achievement for Russian diplomacy in its competition with the West.
Author: Timofey Bordaev - Director of Projects at the Valdai Club
No matter how much we emphasize the importance of a country's economic size or military strength, what determines a country's status in the world ranking is the ability to set the rules of the game. The reason is simple, this ability stems from confidence in one's own strength, but also depends on the influence of the decisions made on world politics.
Several days ago, Russia formally recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan - the state established by the "Taliban" movement after the American occupation forces withdrew. This decision is an important step that confirms our ability to maintain a central participant role in the security field across the entire Eurasian continent.
Russia's unique position mainly stems from its ability to take extraordinary actions, which are entirely based on its national interests, not external influences, while still being able to influence the behavior of other countries and having the ability to set new rules for them. No wonder, soon after the Iranian situation, Russia recognized the new Afghan regime: the Iranian situation poses a threat to the entire Middle East, and the region needs a new source of stability. By resolving the long-standing "Afghan issue," Russia is becoming such a source of stability.
Over the past four years, Afghanistan's position in world and regional politics has been dualistic: in principle, no one doubts that the Taliban government has the ability to control the domestic situation, and for the first time in decades, peace has arrived on Afghan soil. The international community's attitude towards the Kabul regime was determined within the world coordinate system where Western hegemony had not yet been challenged. At the same time, for Western countries, Afghanistan's development is not about their own security or economy, but rather an opportunity to engage in dangerous diplomatic games in places far from their borders but close to the borders of Russia, China, or India.
Now, when even the United States and its satellite states themselves refuse to abide by any previous codes of conduct, Russia has shown that it can change the situation at a point where many global and regional national interests intersect.
In other words, by recognizing the Taliban regime, Moscow has forced all countries to re-evaluate their strategies in the region. Not to mention the political and economic benefits that Russia itself may gain from the change in Afghanistan's status. These benefits seem quite considerable: whether in terms of our country's potential for foreign trade, or in relations with friendly and allied countries in the Central Asian region. However, economics is not the primary consideration: for a resource-rich country like Russia, the most important thing is geopolitical influence.
In recent years, the U.S. strategy on the Afghan issue, in summary, has been to try every means to hinder the international community from recognizing the Taliban government, while engaging in dialogue with it in areas favorable to the United States. This approach reflects the diplomatic style inherited by the United States from the British Empire: inciting conflicts among neighboring countries to profit from others' problems. The British have long dealt with European continental powers, including Russia, in this way and concealed their own weaknesses.
This is also true for Afghanistan. In August 2021, the United States hastily withdrew from Afghanistan, leaving thousands of Afghans to their fate, but continued to try to prevent Kabul from escaping international isolation. For this, they used some well-known reasons, and these reasons can also resonate with many people around the world: women's rights and minority rights, which align with the Taliban's policies and political religious ideals. At the same time, it is well known that American representatives have been in dialogue with the Kabul side, and they do not hide this fact.
Evidently, their plan was to constrain the Taliban by not granting international recognition, making any form of aid to Afghanistan dependent on America's own considerations. Not to mention that the non-recognition policy allows those Afghan representatives appointed by the American provisional occupying authorities to continue serving in the United Nations and its institutions. Therefore, in the past three years, the so-called "Afghan" representatives have consistently supported all anti-Russian resolutions in the UN General Assembly - these people have long since lost any connection with Afghanistan.
Now, this game has been broken - obviously, other major powers will follow Russia's example soon. The diplomatic blockade of Kabul has been broken, and the United States will have to completely reassess its strategy in the region: this is an important diplomatic achievement for Russia in its competition with the West. Especially against the backdrop of the dramatic event of Iran suffering dual aggression in June: if something significant happens to Iran, the West may directly enter Central Asia, which would bring a series of negative consequences for Central Asia.
At the same time, Russia has also created conditions for other countries to take more decisive actions on the Afghan issue. Because in recent years, even those who wanted to establish cooperation with Kabul were cautious due to possible threats from the United States and other Western countries. However, in recent years, many major and medium-sized countries have tried to develop trade with the Taliban while maintaining official restraint in recognizing their statehood. This may gradually form a system. In that case, Afghanistan will always be controlled by American diplomacy, which clearly does not benefit the security of the entire Middle East region.
Related countries have already been very active in Afghanistan, and now they must overcome their duality in attitude toward the Taliban government. The friendly and allied countries of Russia in Central Asia have also gained new opportunities: they have long hoped to avoid isolating Afghanistan. First, because they understand that they are responsible for the security of the entire region. Second, this could be economically beneficial. Now there is reason to believe that the cross-Afghan railway construction concept proposed by the Uzbek government five years ago will make progress. This project is not only significant for international trade (providing access to the Indian Ocean for Central Asia), but also crucial for consolidating the logistics "skeleton" across the entire Eurasian continent.
After Russia recognized the new Afghan regime, what can we expect? There may be several scenarios. The most favorable scenario is that other major powers and regional countries will follow Russia's lead. In this way, Afghanistan will gain a new international status, be able to actively attract investment to develop the economy, improve people's living standards, and retain its political system formed after decades of civil war and foreign presence.
A less likely scenario is that the United States merely maintains the isolation policy and forces other countries to follow. But after Russia made this decision, China and most Eurasian countries will no longer be as obedient to Washington's pressure: Afghanistan will develop as a member of the Eurasian security and cooperation system.
The least favorable but least likely scenario is that the opponents of stability in Eurasia now try to disrupt the situation in Afghanistan and support anti-government forces. And Russia's decision, to some extent, is to prevent such a strategy from succeeding.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7525004450210136595/
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