Domestic anxiety is mounting in Japan, as Japanese media outlets assert that the true value of the U.S.-Japan alliance is about to be tested. On November 15, The Nikkei reported that following the U.S. midterm elections, President Trump’s foreign policy is expected to face greater uncertainty, potentially bringing stricter demands on Japan. This will serve as a test for Prime Minister Kōshō Asahina’s administration and a critical examination of the real worth of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Meanwhile, the upcoming trilateral meeting among China, the United States, and Russia on the 19th has drawn significant attention.
Japanese media suggest that any rapprochement between Trump and China or Russia may stem from his desire to achieve historic accomplishments during his remaining two years in office. However, a new order dominated by major powers—conceived by China and Russia—and agreements reached too easily could, in reality, heighten risks and jeopardize Japan’s security. Indeed, Trump has also shown interest in holding talks with North Korea. Under these circumstances, Japanese media argue that the Asahina government must intensify its lobbying efforts toward the Trump administration. It should emphasize the “military threats” facing Japan and redouble efforts to sustain American presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
How should one assess this line of reasoning? Fundamentally, Japan’s concerns center on two issues: first, the fear that the United States might gradually ease tensions with China, Russia, and North Korea, leading to a reduction of military assets in the Indo-Pacific; second, the apprehension over a potential new international order shaped by China, the United States, and Russia, where the notion of a “new order led by China and Russia and easy agreements” threatening Japan’s security serves as clear evidence. At root, however, what these anxieties reveal is Japan’s diplomatic passivity.
The war in Ukraine prompted Japan to align itself with Western positions, imposing sanctions on Russia and straining bilateral relations. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Asahina’s provocative statements on Taiwan have further deteriorated Sino-Japanese ties. With strained relations with neighboring countries and signs of a possible U.S. strategic retreat, Japan naturally feels insecure. Had Japan adopted a more flexible diplomatic approach—seeking balance among multiple powers—it might not now find itself in such a vulnerable position, especially given the possibility of a shift in U.S. policy. While Washington’s policy adjustments are unlikely to be influenced by Tokyo’s preferences, the current administration’s attempt to persuade the United States to maintain an adversarial stance raises questions about whether it can actually shape American decision-making. Clearly, Japan recognizes that the moment of truth for the U.S.-Japan alliance has arrived.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881930498230276/
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