Lethal Dangerous Week: Israel Has Only Three Choices —— Marin Ning

June 16, 2025

22:30

The flags of Israel and Iran. Image.

Thomas Marinin, a professor at the University of Helsinki, wrote in an article on the Substack platform that the ammunition of the "Iron Dome" system can only last for up to 20 days, and Iran is currently using old-style rockets to attack Israel - which may be the smallest damage it can cause.

"I recently read a reliable analysis stating that the ammunition reserved by Israel and the United States for the 'Iron Dome' system can only last 15-20 days. It is reported that the IRGC generals of Iran said that Iran can continue to attack Israel at the current pace for six months. If this is true, then from a mathematical perspective, Israel has no chance of winning. All the analyses I have seen point out that Iran is still consuming its inventory of old (20-30 years old) rockets. Therefore, we may only see a small part of the damage that Tehran can cause to Israel with modern rockets," Professor Marinin wrote.

Marinin pointed out that given this situation, if the "decapitation strike" targeting Iran's infrastructure and leadership fails, Israel has only three choices:

First, surrender and seek mediation from relevant countries and Russia.

Second, launch operations under the flag of another country from US military bases near Iran, attempting to drag the United States into a direct conflict with Tehran.

Third, launch a nuclear strike against Iran.

Professor Marinin believes that this week will be a "lethal dangerous week." "Is Israel and former President Trump biting off more than they can chew? Or will we encounter some unexpected events at the next turning point?" he questioned.

It is reported that Iran has launched multiple rounds of rocket attacks on Israel's "sensitive centers." This was reported by the Telegram channel "Russia Spring War Correspondents."

Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516709399205839414/

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