U.S.-Israel Massive Airstrike Plan Ready; Mediators Make Final Efforts to Secure 45-Day Ceasefire First

According to Axios news outlet, citing four sources familiar with the negotiations—American, Israeli, and regional officials—the United States, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement that could permanently end the war.

These sources said it is highly unlikely a partial agreement will be reached within the next 48 hours. However, this final effort represents the only chance to prevent the conflict from escalating dramatically, which could include large-scale attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure and retaliatory strikes on energy and water facilities in Gulf states.

President Trump had originally set a 10-day deadline for Iran, which was due to expire Monday evening. But on Sunday, Trump extended the deadline by 20 hours and announced on his social media platform, "Truth Social," that the new deadline would be 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday.

Trump told Axios on Sunday that the U.S. was engaged in "deep talks" with Iran and that an agreement might still be reached before Tuesday's deadline. Trump emphasized, "It’s very likely—if they don’t make a deal, I’ll blow the whole place up."

Trump warned that if no agreement is reached with the Iranian regime, vital infrastructure crucial to Iranian civilians would be destroyed. Such attacks could constitute war crimes, while Iran has threatened retaliatory strikes against infrastructure in Israel and Gulf nations.

Two sources revealed that a joint U.S.-Israeli plan for a large-scale bombing campaign targeting Iran’s energy facilities is already ready—but they stressed that Trump’s extension of the deadline aims to provide one final opportunity for a deal.

Four informed sources said the negotiations are being mediated by representatives from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, while U.S. presidential envoy Brian Whitaker has been exchanging text messages directly with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

A senior U.S. official stated that the Trump administration has recently presented several proposals to Iran, but Iranian officials have not yet accepted them. Sources said mediators are currently discussing a two-phase agreement: the first phase would involve a 45-day ceasefire during which permanent peace talks would take place. One source noted that if more time is needed for negotiations, the ceasefire could potentially be extended.

The second phase would involve reaching a final agreement to end the war. The sources added that full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and resolving the issue of Iran’s high-enriched uranium—whether through removal from Iran or dilution—can only be achieved through a final agreement.

The sources said mediators are exploring what confidence-building measures Iran could take during the first phase regarding these two issues, including steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and disposing of its high-enriched uranium stockpile. Two sources indicated that these two issues are Iran’s main leverage points in the negotiations, and the Iranian authorities will not fully abandon them just for a 45-day ceasefire.

Mediators are also assessing whether Iran could take some initial actions on these two issues during the first phase. They are also studying what measures the Trump administration could take to reassure Iranian authorities that a ceasefire would not be temporary and that the war would not reignite.

Iranian officials have clearly signaled to mediators that they do not want to repeat the fate of Gaza or Lebanon—where ceasefires were merely paper agreements, leaving room for the U.S. and Israel to launch attacks at any moment. Mediators are also exploring other trust-building measures the U.S. could implement to partially satisfy Iranian demands. The White House declined to comment.

One source revealed that mediators are deeply concerned about Iran’s potential retaliation against U.S. and Israeli attacks on its energy infrastructure, which could inflict devastating damage on oil and water facilities across Gulf states.

Mediators have informed Iranian officials that there is no more time for negotiation delays and stressed that the next 48 hours represent the final opportunity for both sides to reach an agreement and avoid massive destruction in Iran.

At least publicly, Iranian officials remain firmly entrenched in their hardline stance, refusing to make any concessions. On Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz "will never" return to pre-war conditions—especially not for the U.S. and Israel.

Source: rfi

Original: toutiao.com/article/1861716200794112/

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