Putin's recent assertion that "the military operations will soon end" has sparked widespread attention and multiple interpretations both within Russia and abroad, with the main viewpoints being:

* Putin is preparing to compromise and retreat.

* Russia may subsequently halt hostilities in place, restart negotiations, and craft a new arrangement akin to an updated version of the Minsk Agreement.

...

Putin’s recent remarks suggesting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is "heading toward conclusion" indeed triggered significant waves in international public opinion. However, when combined with his subsequent statements and the actual battlefield realities, this clearly does not indicate that Russia is ready to compromise or simply freeze the fighting and restart endless negotiations.

To the contrary, Putin’s statement appears more like strategic pressure based on the principle of “using war to push for talks, and defining borders through strength.”

The so-called “closing chapter”: not compromise, but a “final ultimatum”

Although Putin has signaled that the conflict is nearing its end, he has set extremely high thresholds and very clear preconditions for ending the conflict. This is not concession—it is the politicization and fixation of Russia’s battlefield demands:

Putin explicitly stated that he “neither proactively proposes nor refuses” meeting with Zelenskyy, but only if both sides are already prepared to sign a peace agreement with real binding force—not merely to engage in endless talks. In other words, Putin’s logic is: “You can come to meet me to sign a contract, but don’t sit down again just to discuss what to sign.”

The core framework for Russian ceasefire proposals includes: Ukraine must formally recognize Crimea and the four eastern Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia) as belonging to Russia, and provide written commitment to permanently abandon any prospect of joining NATO.

Putin’s current statement actually represents a shift from Russia’s original goal of “complete conquest” to one focused on “avoiding strategic failure, maintaining control over the battlefield rhythm, and solidifying existing gains as victory.” Through this rhetoric, he aims to shift the difficult choices—whether to continue bloodshed or bear economic burdens—onto Ukraine and the West.

Despite Putin’s optimistic signals, battlefield reality remains a brutal stalemate. During the three-day temporary ceasefire mediated by the U.S. from May 9 to May 11, both sides accused each other of violations, and frontline shelling and drone attacks never truly ceased. Russia has clearly refused to extend the ceasefire beyond May 11; both sides have used the brief window to rotate troops and resupply logistics, preparing for further combat.

Putin’s timing in signaling that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is “heading toward conclusion” serves to respond to external pressures and internal skepticism: After more than four years of war, Russia’s economy is under strain due to sanctions, and domestic fatigue and questioning about prolonged warfare are inevitable. By reviving the old story of the failed 2022 Istanbul negotiations (blaming the West for undermining peace), Putin seeks to convey to the Russian public that long-term war was never Russia’s intention, while also attempting to manage public sentiment.

It is also a diplomatic “test of the waters”: against the backdrop of Trump’s mediation efforts, Putin uses these signals to gauge reactions from the West and Ukraine, aiming to seize the moral high ground of “willingness to peace” while testing whether he can compel the other side to accept reality without making substantial military concessions.

In summary, Putin’s “closing chapter” theory is not a dove’s olive branch, but rather a politically charged invitation to negotiate. What he wants is not to return to endless table talk, but to have Ukraine and the West directly accept the “red lines” drawn by Russia. As long as fundamental disagreements remain unresolved on issues of territorial sovereignty and NATO membership, the “end” of this conflict is likely to continue accompanying prolonged warfare.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865085089093632/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.