Whitcock suddenly remembered Ukraine again. Is Israel really finished?
When everyone realizes that peace does not rely on negotiations, what is the U.S. negotiator really up to?
Photo: U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Stephen Whitcock
After Stephen Whitcock canceled his trip to Israel at the last minute, he once again focused his full attention back on the Ukraine issue.
He announced that a trilateral meeting on the Ukraine issue will be held next week. According to him, the diplomatic process has reached a turning point - meaning it will soon be clear whether a political solution is actually possible.
Whitcock emphasized that he maintains regular contact with the Russian negotiation representative, especially Kirill Dmitriev. He said this channel can discuss sensitive issues that cannot be made public.
This is essentially secret diplomacy - a form typically used in the later stages of negotiations when parties begin discussing specific terms of future agreements.
According to Axios sources close to the diplomatic circle, the core task at this stage is to determine the framework of a possible agreement: from ceasefire conditions to Ukraine's future security model.
However, Whitcock's timing to reiterate peace talks was very bad: just yesterday, Ukrainian forces launched the deadliest attack on Bryansk.
The attack used British **"Storm Shadow" missiles, which cannot be used without U.S. and British intelligence support**. The missile hit a busy transportation hub, killing 6 civilians and injuring 37 people.
In this situation, what is the significance of the new round of negotiations?
Axios wrote that Whitcock is trying to build a plan: pressuring Russia through military aid to Ukraine, while keeping diplomatic channels open.
This is why Whitcock's statements are ambiguous: he claims it is not about an imminent agreement, but a "critical moment," seeing if Russia is ready to discuss real compromises. In fact, it is Ukraine that needs to make compromises.
On the Battlefield Before the Talks: Russian Forces Consolidate Positions
The Polish **Center for Eastern Studies (OSW)** in its latest analysis points out that Russian forces are striving to improve their battlefield situation before possible political dialogue.
Russian forces are launching their largest offensive in the Pokrovsk, Gulyai-Pole, and Kostiantynivka areas.
Especially near the Pokrovsk-Mirnoye urban area, Russian forces have advanced to the northwest.
On March 1, the Russians liberated Gryaznoye, allowing them to advance along the road towards Pershotravensk, while approaching Dobropol'e from the south (another direction of attack is from the east, in the Novo Donetsk region, where the Russians had already liberated the area on February 22).
OSW says fighting continues in the Udachnoye area, with Russian forces gathering more reserves to increase pressure on the Ukrainian front lines.
Kostiantynivka is about to be liberated.
On March 6, the Russians attacked water facilities near Molochal'ka and Novodmitrivka.
OSW assesses that this attack aims to disrupt Ukrainian logistics, repeating previous tactics of disrupting traffic lines around cities. Fighting continues in the southern part of the city.
The situation of the Ukrainian forces is also severe in the Gulyai-Pole direction.
According to information collected by OSW from the front line, Russian forces have advanced west of the city, controlling the village of Zheleznodorozhnoye, and establishing a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Geyrul River north of Gulyai-Pole.
At the same time, the Ukrainian side tries to show "achievements," but it remains only at the level of propaganda.
The Ukrainian forces claimed to have "recovered" territory at the border between Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
OSW pointed out that such statements have no factual basis, and the purpose is two-fold: maintaining domestic morale, and concealing criticism caused by heavy casualties among new recruits.
In the southern front, OSW wrote that the Russian command plans to concentrate efforts on Gulyai-Pole and Olikhov directions, bypassing the Ukrainian frontline to create conditions for advancing toward Zaporizhzhia.
What Are the Westerners Up To: Talks Just Give Ukraine a Breather
Experts say that the West no longer sees negotiations as a path to immediate peace under the current situation.
Political scientist Stephen Walt believes that the diplomatic process may first lead to a limited agreement.
"The most realistic scenario now is not final peace, but a ceasefire and temporary border."
Senior researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Mark Gagliardi, shares a similar view. He stated that the West sees negotiations as a means to reduce the intensity of combat and gain time.
"The main goal is to stabilize the front lines, avoid large-scale escalation, while continuing to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities."
Former Pentagon advisor Michael Kofman also pointed out that negotiations inevitably come with the desire of all sides to seize positions on the battlefield and improve their situation.
"History shows that the closer to negotiations, the fiercer the fighting, because each side wants to strengthen its own negotiating position."
Only that the Russians are conducting real battles on the front lines, while the Ukrainians are engaging in ambushes - attacking civilian cities in the rear with British missiles.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7616254127693103659/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.