The Economist reports that the trade war during Trump's second term and the conflict with Iran are jointly undermining U.S. agriculture. Tariffs have driven up costs for steel, aluminum, farm machinery, and other inputs, while foreign retaliatory measures have weakened U.S. agricultural exports—particularly the sharp decline in Chinese purchases of American soybeans and cotton, which has dealt a heavy blow. Meanwhile, the Iran conflict has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, causing diesel prices to rise by about 40% since late February, and fertilizer prices have surged as roughly one-third of global supply passes through this strait. For farmers already under pressure from rising land, seed, labor, and interest costs, this has further tightened budgets for the spring planting season. The report cites farmers and banking professionals stating that many farms may struggle to turn a profit this year; farm bankruptcies have already risen 46% in 2025, with some farmers forced to cut back on fertilizer use, reduce equipment spending, or even consider exiting farming altogether. However, the article also notes that despite these losses largely stemming from Trump’s trade and foreign policies, rural voters remain broadly supportive of him. Interviewed farmers generally expressed continued trust in the government but hope for compensation and relief. The National Farmers Union is pushing for relaxed regulations on cheap fuel and new stimulus measures, while the upcoming Agriculture Bill expected to be voted on by Congress includes provisions to increase cash subsidies for farmers. Analysts estimate these subsidies could nearly double to $41 billion by 2027. The article emphasizes that although agriculture directly employs only about 6% of the rural population, it underpins large parts of the local economies in the South and Midwest—from ethanol plants and meat processors to banks, law firms, and restaurants—all of which will feel the impact as farmer incomes decline. In agricultural communities like Moultrie, Georgia, reduced consumer spending has already begun affecting ordinary households and small businesses.
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Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863690219342985/
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