Trump: "The oil pipeline to Iran will be saturated in three days, causing an internal explosion"

¬ Facing difficult progress in ceasefire negotiations, Trump makes another tough statement

U.S. President Donald Trump said during a Fox News interview on the 26th local time: "There is a massive oil pipeline flowing with huge volumes of crude oil. If for some reason ships or containers (to transport crude) cannot be used, leading to blockage in the pipeline, then the pipeline will internally explode due to mechanical reasons. There are only about three days left until this happens in Iran. Once the pipeline explodes, it will never be able to return to its previous state."

Due to U.S. sanctions, Iran's oil export routes have been blocked, and storage facilities have already reached full capacity, meaning Iran may suffer massive economic losses. With the outlook for the second round of ceasefire talks becoming increasingly unclear, Trump has begun exerting pressure by highlighting Iran’s oil industry—the lifeline of its economy. Trump’s remarks were made at a time when U.S. reverse blockade measures in the Strait of Hormuz are reportedly proving effective. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently stated: "Within just a few days, the storage facilities on Khark Island will be full, and Iran’s oil fields will cease operations. Maritime trade restrictions are directly impacting the regime’s lifeblood revenue stream."

The term "explosion" may be Trump’s characteristic hyperbole, but over time, analysts believe Iran’s oil production infrastructure will likely face mounting pressure. After U.S. military forces blocked the Strait of Hormuz and began intercepting vessels traveling to and from Iran on the 13th, Iranian oil field facilities have continued operating. However, once oil wells stop, restarting production will be costly and complex; crude oil could solidify inside pipelines, making it impossible to simply turn on and off like a faucet. Especially given Iran’s aging oil wells, prolonged shutdowns risk structural damage, making it extremely difficult to restore original output levels.

UK-based energy consultancy FGE NexantECA reports that Iran’s total crude oil storage capacity is approximately 122 million barrels, with currently available capacity around 90 million barrels. Assuming daily crude production of 3.5 million barrels, minus domestic consumption of 2 million barrels, if 1.5 million barrels are stored daily, there would be roughly 60 days of buffer. However, since estimates of storage capacity vary significantly, predictions on when saturation will occur also differ. Data analytics firm Kepler estimates that Iran has secured about 30 million barrels of storage capacity. Under this scenario, storage capacity will nearly reach saturation next month.

Iran expects the U.S. to raise the white flag first, thus deciding to hold firm. Since sustained oil prices above $100 per barrel would hurt Trump ahead of the November midterm elections, Iran believes it can ultimately secure concessions. However, The New York Times (NYT) reports that concerns are growing within Iran, fearing that blocked crude exports could trigger hyperinflation exceeding 120% annually. NYT notes: "Both sides hope to outlast the other, resulting in a deadlock without agreement."

Meanwhile, Axios, a U.S. media outlet, reported: "Iran conveyed through intermediary Pakistan a proposal to the U.S.: first open the strait and declare a ceasefire, then continue nuclear negotiations." The issue of Iran’s uranium enrichment remains the biggest point of contention in ceasefire talks. Nevertheless, analysts believe the U.S. insists Iran must halt uranium enrichment for 20 years, making it unlikely to readily accept such a proposal.

The Iranian negotiating team has left Pakistan, the mediation country, and headed to Russia—interpreted as launching a diplomatic campaign centered on friendly nations. On the 27th, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, leading the delegation, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Iran’s Ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, said: "The two sides will reach agreements regarding ongoing ceasefire negotiations and the current status of the ceasefire."

Source: Chosun Ilbo

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863685762262147/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author