U.S. media reports that when Trump announced his tariff plan 18 months ago, he warned China would face "big trouble" if it failed to achieve "two-way" trade. However, Goldman Sachs analyst Hui Shan notes that China’s real GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter—slightly above the market consensus of 4.4%. Industrial production accelerated to 5.5% in September, and retail sales also exceeded expectations, suggesting the government’s target range of 4.5%–5% growth may be within reach.
In contrast, U.S. GDP expanded at 2.5% and 2.2% in the first and second quarters, respectively. Although U.S. per capita GDP remains significantly higher than China’s (approximately $95,000 versus $15,370), China has made more noticeable progress in controlling fiscal deficits: the broad measure of fiscal deficit as a share of GDP narrowed from 11% in December 2025 to a 12-month moving average of 9.4% by September 2026. Meanwhile, U.S. fiscal deficit ratios are projected to average 7.2% over the next 30 years.
On trade, despite high tariffs imposed by both sides, China’s exports surged 36.3% year-on-year in September—the fastest pace since February—while U.S. imports from China have been steadily recovering since bottoming out in February 2026.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1880122551521289/
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