According to a report by Asia Times on September 15, the international community increasingly views Sino-US relations as a new Cold War, but it is vastly different from the US-Soviet confrontation of that era.

Due to China's significant advantage in controlling military costs, if the US and China fall into an arms race, the US will not be able to overwhelm its opponent as it did against the Soviet Union through economic and defense spending advantages.

Instead, the US would be the one dragged down.

Although the US has proposed decoupling, it has repeatedly backed down when it comes to implementation: several years ago, there seemed to be an opportunity, but it dared not cut off the supply chain with China, and economic warfare also yielded after China's countermeasures.

This wavering makes it seem to the outside world that the US just shouts loudly, but does not have the real will to fully confront China.

China, in the current global situation, is already in a position of transcendence, which makes the US even more passive.

Middle East remains chaotic

The article states that China's performance in regional conflicts exemplifies this transcendent stance.

In the Middle East, China is not merely watching from the sidelines, but consistently plays the role of a mediator.

Whether it is the Iran nuclear deal or the Israel-Palestine conflict, China always emphasizes promoting a peaceful resolution without directly intervening in military conflicts. It opposes resolving disputes through strength, neither attacking any side nor completely staying out of it. Instead, it uses trade, diplomacy, and multilateral platforms to convey order and stability.

This is also the case in European issues.

As the Russia-Ukraine war continues, China has maintained a neutral stance. Compared to the US's military aid and direct involvement, China appears much more transcendent.

But this transcendence is not retreat, nor is it indifference or cold observation.

Because both the energy in the Middle East and the market in Europe are closely linked to China's core interests.

The real logic is: not getting dragged into the quagmire of conflict, but ensuring that once the situation turns, China can become an indispensable player.

This is the key point. India's approach is what we call "watching from the shore," occasionally taking advantage of the situation and secretly gaining benefits, only to face reckoning in the end.

While China has been targeted by the West, the West is well aware that ultimately, they cannot bypass China when solving problems, unlike India.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The article presents a claim that China is now in an unbeatable position.

If the US collapses on its own, China can take over the mess; if the US reacts and gets out of its current difficulties, China still has the capability to respond.

First, why is it said that the US is likely to collapse on its own, and China is the only country that can clean up the mess?

The answer lies in the structural dilemmas within the US itself.

Political violence has completely torn apart American society, with tens of trillions of dollars in debt, plus military spending pressure, making the US increasingly difficult to breathe.

In such a situation, the US will not be defeated by an external enemy, but will lose global dominance due to its own collapse.

If this happens, the world will immediately face a vacuum of order.

The EU is divided internally and lacks a unified will; Russia has limited economic size and weakened military power, and it also lacks the ability to integrate globally; while countries like India and Japan may have ambitions, but their economic strength, industrial chains, and strategic depth are far behind China.

Only China has a complete industrial system, a vast market, a stable system, and a global network built through the Belt and Road Initiative and the community with a shared future for mankind.

Certainly, China is not replacing the US as a hegemon, but rather maintaining and reshaping the global order through trade, diplomacy, and infrastructure, pushing humanity into a new era.

American and Chinese flags

So, what if the US really wakes up and regains its strength?

China doesn't need to fear anything.

First, the advantages of industrial chains and manufacturing cannot be compensated in a short time. Even if the US increases investment, it will be difficult to change its cost and production capacity disadvantages in the short term.

Second, China has already established sufficient buffers through the dual circulation of domestic and foreign markets, so it will not fall into difficulties due to the US's adjustment.

Third, even if the US regains its strength, it will still face three major constraints that cannot be eliminated: the party divisions cannot be healed overnight, the alliance relationships are more of a cost than a benefit, and multi-front strategic consumption prevents the US from focusing solely on China.

Therefore, China's situation is only a bit more complicated.

The fundamental reason is that China's confidence does not come from the US's decline, but from its own comprehensive strength and strategic patience to withstand any backlash.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7550525604644848163/

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