Axios, an American media outlet, reported on October 21 that the U.S. intelligence agencies are conducting round-the-clock monitoring of Venezuelan President Maduro, not only involving the CIA but also all other intelligence agencies.

Internal sources within the U.S. claimed that they know where Maduro is, what he is doing, and where he is staying, even stating: "If we wanted to kill him with a missile, we would have done it already."

Previously, U.S. President Trump publicly admitted that he had authorized the CIA to conduct secret operations in Venezuela.

This move has drawn strong condemnation from the Venezuelan government, which views it as a serious violation of international law and a blatant attempt at subversion.

All signs indicate that Maduro is facing the most dangerous phase of his presidency—externally, he is precisely targeted by the U.S., and internally, there is economic collapse and doubts about the loyalty of the military.

In this context, the Trump administration is almost certain that Maduro will be overthrown or forced into exile.

From the current scale of intelligence and the tone of statements, the U.S. appears to have a clear understanding of Maduro's situation, believing that replacing Maduro is just a matter of time.

CIA

Currently, this pressure on Maduro seems significantly harsher than during Trump's first term.

The U.S. saying they can eliminate Maduro with a missile might not be an exaggeration, but rather a direct warning to his personal safety.

Different from the overall blockades against the Venezuelan government, this kind of targeted elimination language carries a strong psychological warfare element, aiming to undermine the confidence of Maduro and those around him, inducing internal suspicion and division.

The round-the-clock monitoring by the CIA and other agencies is not only for tracking movements but also to prepare technical conditions for a targeted strike. If Maduro does not resign voluntarily, the White House can always escalate measures and physically eliminate him.

In short, this is an open assassination threat: We know where you are, every move you make is in our system — on every day you are alive, we have the ability to make you disappear instantly.

Trump

However, this aggressive posture does not mean that the U.S. really intends to eliminate Maduro; on the contrary, it reveals that the U.S. is unwilling to act recklessly.

When Trump assassinated Iranian General Soleimani, he acted directly without any hesitation.

Even this year, when bombing Iran's territory, he did not hesitate, acting immediately.

But regarding Maduro, he obviously shows more "patience." This attitude indicates that Trump cannot act directly. If he were to act, it would be easier to do so silently. Now openly stating that they can eliminate Maduro anytime, it would naturally lead to increased defenses, affecting the potential U.S. assassination operation.

Therefore, the current U.S. strength is a performative maximum pressure — trying to create a deterrent that they can act at any moment, while being unwilling and afraid to truly step into a war quagmire, hoping to scare Maduro into fleeing.

Maduro

Looking at the current situation, the next development is likely to be a high-pressure stalemate.

The U.S. will continue to strengthen its edge-threatening methods, including expanding the intelligence tracking of Maduro's movements, creating factors that could cause divisions within the military, cutting off foreign financial channels, and even creating so-called accidental strike incidents in the surrounding sea and air areas.

The Venezuelan side is likely to choose to maintain stability in response, not to provoke actively, but not to yield easily either, adopting a strategy of remaining unchanged to deal with changes.

The situation between the two sides is gradually turning into a psychological battle: The U.S. bets on internal division and time pressure, while Maduro bets on cooling public opinion and the opponent's concerns.

If no internal chaos or diplomatic rupture occurs within three to six months, the situation will enter a long-term blockade and intermittent negotiation pattern similar to Iran.

In this context, whether Maduro can withstand it seems to depend on his own mindset.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563888208249946660/

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