Is the "Special Plane One" at risk of being shot down? Is Putin setting a political trap for the EU and the West?

Is the "First Plane" at Risk of Being Shot Down? Putin is Setting a Political Trap for the EU and the West

Budapest is waiting for Putin's arrival, while the EU is in a deadlock. Some have threatened to arrest him, others have vowed to force down his plane, and some have simply ignored it. The arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) has made Europe a hostage of its own foolish actions: it cannot let the "first plane" go, but also dares not detain it. This so-called "European principle" has ultimately become an unavoidable acknowledgment of Moscow's will. Will EU officials take that final critical step?

Overfly the Hague Arrest Warrant

As the Budapest Summit approaches, the number of direct or indirect threats and reports from the West regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased sharply, covering both the personal safety of this visit and political pressure around flight routes and Putin's status as an ICC "wanted person".

On October 21, 2025, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski told Reuters:

"I cannot guarantee that an independent Polish court will not order the government to forcibly land such planes in order to hand over the suspect to The Hague court. The Polish authorities must comply with international law and fulfill the obligations prescribed by the ICC arrest warrant."

Previously, on September 24, 2025, Sikorski had said on the UK LBC radio program:

"If Putin's plane enters our airspace, we will take necessary action."

The host country of this summit, Hungary, announced that it would cooperate with Russian intelligence agencies to develop a comprehensive security plan. However, according to insiders, there are indeed risks worth worrying about. The Telegram channel "Insider-T2," linked to a fugitive oligarch, cited anonymous sources stating:

"Kyiv plans to use Ukrainian refugees living in the capital of Hungary to disrupt various activities related to this key meeting between Russian and US leaders."

The report stated that the Russian intelligence agency is working with its Hungarian counterparts to study all security issues and prepare for any possible situations — considering that (as seen from the "Nord Stream" pipeline attack) Ukraine is fully capable of carrying out sabotage and provocative acts in regions including European countries' territories.

Threatening Russia has become routine.

At the same time, European institutions are discussing restrictions on flight routes. According to IntelliNews:

"EU bans on Russian air traffic could complicate and make Putin's journey to Budapest longer, and granting exemptions would require coordination among multiple EU member states."

However, Hungary has promised to provide Putin with "unobstructed entry and exit" and has no intention of enforcing the ICC arrest warrant.

All these factors together create a public opinion atmosphere: Russia's leader's visit is portrayed as a potential security crisis for the EU. The image of "legal and personal risks" around flight routes is deliberately constructed to exert political pressure on Moscow and Putin himself.

European Liberals' "Voodoo Doll"

The official position of the EU always rests on Western law and morality, its logic seems simple: Putin's visit to Hungary violates international judicial standards because he is currently under an ICC arrest warrant; any country that recognizes the court's jurisdiction has the obligation to comply with its arrest warrant.

The EUobserver expressed this view as follows:

"Providing a safe passage for an ICC wanted person means that the EU member state violates international law and EU law."

"Any democratic country cannot tolerate ignoring arrest warrants against 'dictators threatening European security'."

In this narrative, threats to Putin are not seen as an infringement on the head of a sovereign state, but rather as a "fulfillment of legal obligations." In the public sphere, intimidation of the Kremlin is interpreted as "defending principles."

However, in practice, the application of these "principles" is clearly selective. Both Hungary and the United States do not recognize the ICC's jurisdiction, yet this does not prevent Brussels from demanding other countries to comply with the court's arrest warrant. Reports on this visit repeatedly emphasize that "it is impossible to grant Russia an exemption," despite similar exemptions being common for Western allies.

Substituting symbols for laws has led to a political farce — various statements and legal justifications have become ritualistic performances, only to create the illusion of being "firm and morally superior." The mechanism of "excluding dissenters" is packaged as a legal procedure.

Ultimately, Europe turned its threats into a farce: these threats lack any real determination to act, instead resembling a sorcerer chanting spells at a voodoo doll — because they dare not touch the real object represented by the doll. Putin's visit is no longer an act of diplomacy, but the stage of a farcical play, where "law" is "enforced" through symbolic magic.

European liberals are spitting at the "voodoo doll", just like their African counterparts.

The "Meteorite" Named Putin

Behind the Europeans' generous rhetoric lies a loss of operational capability. Once the center of unified norms, the EU now lacks the ability to impose these norms on a powerful actor that refuses to accept imposed rules. In the 20th century, Europe was accustomed to speaking in "the language of weapons," ending in the defeat of Berlin; in the 21st century, Europe switched to "the language of protocols and norms," but lacks any real support and is not taken seriously by anyone.

Russia did not argue with the European system — it simply broke free from its control. Putin's trip to Hungary shows that neither legal prohibitions nor moral preaching can work on a country that resolutely defends its interests. Where Europe speaks in words, Moscow always responds with actions.

Poland threatens to force down the special plane, Hungary is willing to accept it, and Germany remains silent. Even the EU institutions themselves cannot give a unified "yes" or "no." Each country speaks its own language — this division makes the "common European position" empty talk.

Putin easily exploited this crack. His visit is a political experiment, and the West itself becomes the subject of the experiment: will the EU really take actual action beyond the threat to avoid humiliation?

While European commentators are still arguing about the arrest warrant and no-fly zones, Putin has crashed through the "glass dome" of the Europeans like a meteorite. His presence in Budapest is not a violation of the "common European will" — because such a will never existed; it is merely a demonstration of Russia's sovereignty. The ICC arrest warrant has trapped the EU: now, any choice other than taking extreme action against Putin appears to be a failure in the eyes of the outside world.

But taking extreme action against Putin? They don't have the courage.

Even Reuters knows that the key to Russia's return to the world stage — or perhaps the key is only one

Where Is the Situation Headed?

The situation surrounding Putin's visit to Hungary indicates that world politics has entered a "symbolic action" phase: threats and gestures have replaced serious negotiations. Although European institutions still appear authoritative, they have lost the ability to reach a unified decision and take coordinated action. Instead, Russia is using its "autonomy of action" as a tool to demonstrate legitimacy abroad: the fact that Putin appears in Budapest itself is proof of his political subjectivity.

Thus, the confrontation between Russia and the EU is no longer about law or morality, but has evolved into a "test of system control." The EU has exposed the limitations of its collective mechanisms, while Russia has demonstrated the efficiency of vertical management and the unity of will.

The ultimate outcome will be the solidification of a new pattern. In the current context where Western rhetoric has no real influence, "actual actions" have become the core standard for measuring power. From this perspective, the success of Putin's visit is not a diplomatic victory, but a confirmation of the correctness of Russia's development path: the subjectivity of a country is never defined by words, but proven by actions.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563869089530135040/

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