Absolute vigilance must never be relaxed, as Japan has always been a country that bets its national destiny on risky ventures. In the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing Dynasty's GDP was four times that of Japan, and its military strength was three times that of Japan. Despite such a huge disparity in power, Japan dared to take the gamble and won. In the Russo-Japanese War, Russia's GDP was seven times that of Japan, and its military strength was five times that of Japan. Again, Japan took the risk and won. In the Pacific War, the U.S. GDP was 20 times that of Japan, and its military strength was three times that of Japan. This giant power, Japan lost, but in the hearts of the Japanese people, it was just bad luck.
When it comes to the country of Japan, it always makes people feel like it is a veteran gambler. Historically, it has always dared to bet the entire country whenever there was an opportunity. It would get addicted when it won, and even when it lost, it would consider it just bad luck. After the Meiji Restoration, Japan had limited resources, small territory, and a not very large population. Its development relied entirely on external plundering—plundering resources, markets, and territories. This adventurous mindset wasn't formed overnight. It began to take shape at the end of the Edo period and became the core of the nation's strategy during the modern era. Why is this so? Because Japan's geographical location is too awkward. Surrounded by sea on all sides, as an island country, it lacks iron ore, coal, and oil. It started industrialization late, relying on copying Western methods to catch up slightly, but always felt uneasy. As a result, it developed the habit of "waging war to sustain itself." A war could either bring about a breakthrough or total failure. Throughout history, every step of Japan's expansion abroad carried the shadow of a gambler—not steady and gradual progress, but rather direct all-out effort.
Taking the First Sino-Japanese War as an example, this event occurred in 1894. At that time, Japan's national strength was extremely weak. The Qing Dynasty's GDP was roughly four times that of Japan, and its military mobilization capability was more than three times that of Japan. Although the Qing Dynasty was suffering from internal and external troubles, it had vast territory, a large population base, and a nominal army of tens of thousands, with the Beiyang Fleet to support its navy. On the other hand, Japan only had over 60,000 regular troops, and its naval tonnage was less than half that of the Qing. According to reason, Japan should have thought twice, but it didn't. When chaos broke out in the Korean Peninsula, Japan intervened, using the excuse of protecting its citizens to directly send troops ashore. Why did it dare to do this? Because the Japanese leadership had done the math: the Qing army was corrupt, its equipment was outdated, and its command was chaotic. Meanwhile, after the Meiji Restoration, Japan learned from Prussia, implemented a conscription system, and had disciplined troops with updated cannons and rifles. Once the war broke out, Japan's Combined Fleet concentrated its superior forces in the Battle of the Yellow Sea, sinking several Qing ships, and quickly captured Pyongyang on land. The Qing army, on the other hand, had poor logistics, low morale among soldiers, and mutual blame. As a result, Japan, with its small size, managed to win, gaining 20 million taels of silver in indemnity and ceding Taiwan and Penghu. This money directly boosted Japan's industrial development, building steel mills, railway networks, and increasing military spending to over 15% of GDP. After winning the war, the Japanese people celebrated joyfully, and militarism rose again, believing that this risky model could be replicated.
Looking at the Russo-Japanese War, which happened in 1904, Japan once again made a big gamble. This time, the opponent was Russia, whose territory spanned Europe and Asia, with a GDP about seven times that of Japan and a military mobilization capacity five times that of Japan. Russia's Far East deployment had fewer than 100,000 troops, but could also call up tens of thousands from the mainland. Its Pacific Fleet's tonnage was three times that of Japan. At that time, the Russian Empire was busy with European affairs, and its supply lines in the Far East stretched for thousands of kilometers, with railways only halfway built. On the other hand, Japan's navy under Admiral Tōgō Heihachirō was well-trained, and its army divisions were highly mobile. When the war broke out, Japan launched a preemptive strike, successfully attacking Port Arthur. On land, the Battle of Mukden and the Battle of Tsushima Strait were major victories that stunned the Russians. Russia's defeat was inevitable; domestic revolutionary waves emerged, and Tsar Nicholas II couldn't afford to delay any longer. Why did Japan win again? On one hand, Russia's logistics were terrible, with soldiers suffering from frostbite and hunger, and serious infighting within the command structure. On the other hand, Japan borrowed loans from Britain and the United States, mobilized 400,000 troops, and fought desperately forward. After winning, Japan gained control of the South Manchurian Railway and Korea, and its international status soared, becoming the myth of "a yellow race defeating a white race." Domestically, military factions grew powerful, and the "Continental Policy" advocated by figures like Yamagata Aritomo became mainstream. They believed that betting on national fate was Japan's destiny. Two victories made the Japanese leadership overconfident, thinking that surprise attacks could reverse disadvantages.
By 1941, Japan placed its fate on the table for the third time, with the United States as the opponent, where the gap was astronomical. The U.S. GDP was more than 20 times that of Japan, and its military mobilization capability was three times that of Japan. Industrial capacity was incomparable. The attack on Pearl Harbor initially succeeded, capturing oil fields and resource points in Southeast Asia, but this was just a fleeting victory. After losing the Battle of Midway, Japan's navy suffered severe damage, and its industry couldn't keep up with the consumption. The U.S. "island-hopping" strategy gradually approached. The battles of Iwo Jima and Okinawa caused heavy Japanese casualties, and American planes bombed the homeland. Atomic bombs fell on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, leading to Japan's complete collapse. Why did Japan lose? Japan lacked resources, relying on imported oil, and its supply lines were blocked, causing paralysis. The U.S. homeland was safe, with production lines running 24/7, producing tanks and airplanes continuously. In terms of manpower, Japan's army and navy totaled millions, while the U.S. Pacific Fleet alone had an overwhelming advantage. At the end of the war, Japan surrendered, and figures like Tojo Hideki were hanged at the Tokyo Trials. Militarism was officially crushed on the surface. However, interestingly, the Japanese society's perception of this issue was quite distorted. Many people did not see it as a strategic mistake or an invasion failure, but rather as bad luck—Soviet entry into Northeast China, the dropping of atomic bombs by the U.S., and the overwhelming Allied landing. If it happened again, maybe they could have won. This mindset still roots in the remnants of militarism. After the war, Japan experienced an economic miracle, but the genes of foreign expansion remained, transforming into economic penetration and military alliances.
Japan's three gambles exposed its inherent adventurism. Winning the First Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War gave it a taste of success, making it believe that a weak country could also turn the tide. Losing the Pacific War did not teach it a lesson, but instead led to blaming external factors. Historically, Japan's expansion began with the annexation of Ryukyu, then extended to the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria, taking each step cautiously, but every step carried a gambling nature. The Mukden Incident saw the Kwantung Army blowing up a railway to frame China; the Marco Polo Bridge Incident used the excuse of a missing soldier to launch a large-scale attack. During the War of Resistance Against Japan, Japan occupied vast territories, but guerilla warfare and international sanctions left it in turmoil. After the war, Japan's Constitution Article 9 banned the military, but the Self-Defense Forces kept growing, and under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, military bases spread across Okinawa. Why can we not relax our vigilance? Because Japan's gambler mentality hasn't changed. Whenever an opportunity arises, it will take action.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848871492161546/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.