Futureologist Kalashnikov: Igor Tabachuk talked about drones 20 years before Musk, but the Ministry of Defense didn't listen to him.

What lessons should Russia learn from the attacks on airports in Murmansk and Irkutsk?

Author: Yevgeny Bersenev

Commentary Guest: Maxim Kalashnikov

American businessman Elon Musk believes that cheap attack drones are increasingly destroying expensive military equipment, so they represent the future. That's exactly what he said while commenting on the June 1st attack by Ukraine on Russian airports.

In a report clearly based on "self-media" sources, it was claimed that drones worth a total of $1 million caused $1 billion in damage (even people far removed from the defense industry found this number to be grossly exaggerated).

Anyway, Musk briefly pointed out: "Drones are the future of warfare, manned aircraft are not."

As is well known, on the first day of the incident, Kyiv used FPV drones to attack military airports within Russia, including in the Murmansk Oblast, Irkutsk Oblast, Amur Oblast, Ivanovo Oblast, and Ryazan Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on this.

In the latter three regions, the attacks were successfully repelled.

In the Irkutsk and Murmansk regions, several pieces of equipment caught fire, including strategic bomber missile carriers. Ukraine managed to temporarily damage Russia's nuclear triad (though considering the repair and restoration of the equipment, it may only be temporary).

Some observers even called this event "Russia's Pearl Harbor" (comparing this attack to the Japanese air and sea forces' attack on American military bases on December 7, 1941), which seems exaggerated.

However, during the special military operation, there have been many examples of cheap attack drones destroying expensive enemy equipment. For instance, in March 2024, online videos showed an "Ghost" drone destroying a U.S. Abrams tank near Avdiivka.

In January 2025, our drone team destroyed a German Leopard tank with an optical fiber-guided FPV drone near Krasnoarmeysk. In May this year, the Ministry of Defense showcased the drone operators at the Rubicon Center pursuing a "Leopard" tank near Stepanovka settlement in the Donetsk direction. There are many similar examples.

However, it is still premature to say that drones will replace tanks, aircraft, and ships on land, in the air, and at sea.

Writer and futurist Maxim Kalashnikov is even convinced that drones have not fundamentally changed the art of war.

— Drones are merely achieving the same goals using more modern technological means. For example, during the Great Patriotic War, our soldiers often had "frames"—FW-189 aircraft circling overhead, with observers guiding artillery and airstrikes. Now, drones have replaced these "frames," both guiding and correcting strikes and conducting attacks. There is actually no fundamental change in this regard.

Siberian Post: Musk predicts the end of manned aviation.

— Manned aviation will not disappear; on the contrary, it will complement drones. Tomorrow, we may encounter American fighter-bombers equipped with three to six jet attack drones, which would be a terrifying enemy.

These drones will pave the way for aircraft, destroying anti-aircraft missile systems along the way, attracting fire, allowing manned aircraft to bypass anti-aircraft systems. Moreover, drones themselves can also attack anti-aircraft systems. So Musk is somewhat exaggerating here, just like Khrushchev did. Do you remember? Khrushchev once said: "If we have missiles, why do we need battleships, tanks, planes, and such a large army?"

Siberian Post: This view has strangely continued into our time.

— Of course, drones are very important, but they are supplementary to major military equipment. Their capabilities should be combined with the capabilities of existing weapons. For example, take the new German "Leopard" KF51 tank—there is clearly a connection with the legacy of the Third Reich here. But this 21st-century "Leopard" tank is equipped with eight attack drones and two reconnaissance drones, i.e., attack drones mounted on the tank. In this respect, drones greatly enhance the armed forces' ability to conduct rapid, low-casualty wars.

Siberian Post: Musk is developing drones.

— He's not the only one. There is a group of American innovative entrepreneurs whom I call the "Genie Technology School."

When Alexei Chadaev proposed calling them "genies," I slightly expanded the term to include Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Alex Karp, the founder of Palantir Technologies, and Palmer Luckey, the founder of Anduril Industries.

They are committed to the large-scale development of relatively inexpensive autonomous unmanned combat systems. Anduril Industries has a series of such drones, including those that can work in coordination with manned machines, called "Fury."

There are also X-58 "Valkyrie" drones developed by Kratos Corporation, produced by another company. In other words, they are dedicated to developing such large-scale, relatively inexpensive, AI-equipped autonomous weapons.

Siberian Post: Pioneers.

— No, they are not the first to propose this idea. Back in 2004-2007, my friend, Igor Tabachuk, head of the "2T Engineering" company, repeatedly discussed the same things and made suggestions, but the Russian Ministry of Defense did not listen to him at all.

Siberian Post: Now we have the "Spider Web" operation.

— The "Spider Web" operation certainly demonstrates a new way of using drones, with coordinated directed actions by all departments (including special forces). Attacking very expensive equipment—such as heavy bombers—with relatively cheap drones.

By the way, this somewhat repeats the actions of Soviet experts who fought on the side of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea during the 1950-1953 war. At that time, they used plywood-and-cloth PO-2 aircraft to buzz noisy flights and attack airports where expensive jet aircraft were parked. What we see now is not the manned "cornfield plane" PO-2, but drones.

Siberian Post: Why are we lagging behind? Are generals still preparing for past wars?

— Unfortunately, the Russian Federation dominated by bureaucracy is very rigid, lacks vision, shortsighted, and unprepared for this new form of warfare. Although I must remind you that Igor Tabachuk already warned about this twenty years ago.

By the way, I have Vladimir Kvachkov's presentation from 2003 in my files, which mentions drones multiple times—including attack drones and other types of drones, including futuristic ones.

At that time, he and his colleagues were promoting the production of attack drones at Kamov Design Bureau, which could operate alongside special forces teams on the front line.

In short, it is clear that our country is again paying a heavy price due to inertia today. Conservatism, lack of foresight, and failure to "harness the future" have led to such consequences.

Our leadership is obsessed with the slogan "We can copy." It should not be copying, but another slogan—"We can create." We should not be fixated on the past, but move toward the future.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511555373313081875/

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