Recently, the dynamics of Sino-India relations have always been a focus of netizens. Since 2020, India has been instigating incidents on the border, competing with China in international forums, and imposing restrictions in the economic field, causing sustained tension between the two countries; however, in recent months, India's attitude towards China has quietly shifted, and this change has sparked much discussion.
Why has there been such a change? I believe the direct reason is related to the recent actions of the United States against India. In previous years, the United States adjusted its Asia-Pacific strategy to the Indo-Pacific strategy, constantly giving India "a high hat". This made India feel overconfident, frequently opposing China: deliberately provoking on the border; in international forums, it often opposes China, even if consensus is reached, it would veto it; in the economic field, it not only interrupted the routes between China and India, but also imposed strict restrictions on Chinese visas. However, recently, the United States has taken tough measures against India, increasing its tariff rate to 50%, enjoying the same "high tariff treatment" as Brazil; meanwhile, in words, it also humiliated India, calling it a "dead economy", which greatly embarrassed Modi. The Modi government believed that they were about to become the third largest economy, "A Three" was about to be confirmed, you say my "dead"?! Previously, Trump had said that five Indian fighter jets were shot down in the India-Pakistan air battle; at a White House cabinet meeting on August 26, he changed his statement, saying that seven or more Indian fighter jets were shot down.
(Photo source: foreign media)
At this time, Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to India provided an opportunity for the improvement of Sino-India relations. At the 24th meeting of special representatives on the boundary issue between China and India, both sides reached 10 points of consensus. According to Indian media reports, China has also relaxed in three areas: rare earths, fertilizers, and tunnel boring machines, agreeing to cancel relevant export restrictions. If this information is true, it is a major benefit for India - after all, China has strong strength in these three fields, even possessing a "monopolistic" advantage. However, I am skeptical about this information: both sides probably discussed the issue of export controls, but China's adjustment in rhythm and intensity will likely not be as fast as India expects.
Prime Minister Modi of India (Photo source: foreign media)
Currently, there are different views within the country regarding the development of Sino-India relations. Some people believe that due to the pressure from the US on India, Sino-India relations have encountered a significant opportunity for improvement. However, I am relatively skeptical about India's strategic shift: the entire Indian strategic community still has suspicion towards China, actually viewing it as an enemy. Whether Sino-India relations can achieve substantial improvement depends not on what India says, but on what it truly does.
Military expert Chen Hu gave a good point in a video released earlier today: To determine whether India takes actual action to improve Sino-India relations, we can observe the following aspects: First, after Prime Minister Modi attends the SCO summit, can various countries issue a decent joint statement, and whether the statement includes support for the "Belt and Road Initiative"; second, will Modi appear on the viewing platform of the "September 3rd Military Parade"; third, will India's attitude towards issues involving China's core interests, such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, undergo a substantive change.
This is the night view of the Haihe River banks in Tianjin on August 1st. (Photo source: Xinhua News Agency)
From the list published by the press center for the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War held this morning, Modi will not attend the "September 3rd Military Parade." In addition, regarding the message that India expressed "Taiwan is part of China" during Foreign Minister Wang Yi's meeting with Indian Foreign Minister Sujan Singh, Indian officials recently clarified that the statement was misquoted, and reiterated that India's position on the Taiwan issue has not changed, and will continue to promote cooperation with Taiwan in economic, technological, and cultural fields. From these two details, it is not difficult to see that the easing of Sino-India relations is currently limited to a tactical level. The suspicion of the entire Indian strategic community towards China has not been eliminated, and it still actually sees China as a rival.
For China, even just a tactical easing, is an opportunity that can be utilized, not a bad thing. We can take advantage of this opportunity, but we should keep a watchful eye, be cautious towards India, and be careful with future cooperation between China and India.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7543591338727359022/
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