In 2013, India's Agni-V ballistic missile made its debut during the Republic Day parade in New Delhi. On August 20, 2025, India successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead near an island on its eastern coast, with a range of up to 5,000 kilometers (AP)
India announced on August 20 that it had successfully test-fired the Agni-V medium-range ballistic missile at a test range located on the eastern coast of Odisha in the Bay of Bengal.
The Agni-V (Agni-V) is 17.5 meters long and weighs 50,000 kilograms, capable of carrying more than 1,000 kilograms of either a nuclear or conventional warhead. It can fly at a hypersonic speed of nearly 30,000 kilometers per hour for over 5,000 kilometers, making it one of the fastest ballistic missiles in the world.
The Agni-V missile test came a week after Pakistan announced the establishment of a new Army Rocket Force Command (ARFC). Experts pointed out that this command aims to address defense vulnerabilities exposed by the four-day conflict between Pakistan and its nuclear neighbor India in May.
However, experts said that India's latest missile test may not be sending a message to Pakistan, but rather to another neighboring country, China - which New Delhi has recently been cautiously warming up to.
The range of the Agni-V missile covers much of Asia, including parts of northern China, as well as some parts of Europe. This is the tenth test of the missile since 2012 and the first since last March, but analysts believe the timing is significant.
This test coincided with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. For years, bilateral relations have been tense due to border disputes, but they are currently in a period of easing - a tariff war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump against India has further accelerated this easing. On Wednesday, the United States doubled the tariffs on Indian goods, reaching 50%, due to tensions arising from India's purchase of oil from Russia.
Nevertheless, experts believe that despite these changes in relations with China, India still sees China as its main threat in the regional area, highlighting the complex relationship between the two countries with the largest populations in the world. Experts point out that the primary objective of India's development of long-range and intercontinental missiles is China.
India's Missile Advantage Over Pakistan
Although India acknowledges that it lost an unspecified number of fighter jets in the conflict with Pakistan in May, it also caused significant damage to Pakistani military bases, especially through its BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.
The BrahMos missile can carry a nuclear or conventional warhead of up to 300 kilograms. Its low-altitude flight capability, terrain-hugging trajectory, and extremely high speed make it difficult to intercept, enabling it to easily enter Pakistani territory.
Many experts believe that, in this context, the Agni-V missile test is not directly related to Pakistan's announcement of establishing the Army Rocket Force Command. Instead, they believe that this test was likely a signal to China. After the deadly clash between Indian and Chinese troops in the Himalayan disputed border in 2020, both sides had been facing off in the border areas for four years until October 2024 when Modi met Chinese state leaders in Russia, initiating a process of easing tensions.
Modi will visit China on Sunday to attend the SCO summit, marking his first visit to China since 2018. In the past, India often expressed feelings of betrayal after showing friendliness toward China, claiming that China frequently took aggressive actions along the border afterward.
"India needs long-range and intercontinental missiles, which is determined by its threat perception towards China," Manpreet Singh Sethi, a senior researcher at the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi, told Al Jazeera.
"[Agni-V] is a ballistic missile with a range of 5,000 kilometers and can carry a nuclear warhead, which India has been developing as part of its nuclear deterrence capability against China. This has nothing to do with Pakistan," Sethi added.
Christopher Clary, assistant professor of political science at the University of Albany, agrees with this view.
He told Al Jazeera, "While the Agni-V missile might be used to strike Pakistan, its main mission is still directed towards China. The Chinese east coast is home to its most important economic and political cities, which are hard to reach from India, so it needs long-range weapons."
The Missile Race in South Asia
In recent years, India and Pakistan have steadily expanded their missile arsenals and introduced new systems with increasing ranges.
Before announcing the establishment of the Army Rocket Force Command, Pakistan showcased the Fateh-4 cruise missile, which has a range of 750 kilometers and can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.
Meanwhile, India is developing the Agni-VI missile, expected to have a range exceeding 10,000 kilometers and capable of carrying multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), a capability already possessed by the Agni-V missile.
Such weapons can carry multiple nuclear warheads, each capable of striking different targets, significantly enhancing their destructive power.
Mansoor Ahmed, honorary lecturer at the Strategic and Defense Studies Centre at the Australian National University, stated that India's latest test demonstrated its growing intercontinental missile capabilities.
"India is developing various types of Agni missiles with multiple capabilities, and this test is also a technical validation of its emerging submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capabilities," Ahmed said.
He added, "According to the warhead configuration of India's submarine-launched ballistic missiles, within the next decade, India could deploy 200 to 300 warheads on its SSBNs (nuclear-powered submarines designed to carry nuclear-armed SLBMs). India currently has two SSBNs in service, with two more under construction."
In contrast, Pakistan does not have long-range missiles or nuclear submarines. Its longest-range operational ballistic missile, the Hatf-III, has a range of 2,750 kilometers.
Ahmed pointed out, "Pakistan also possesses South Asia's first ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), the Ababeel missile, which has a range of 2,200 kilometers, but it is the shortest-range MIRV system deployed by any nuclear power."
Former Pakistani army brigadier and nuclear policy scholar Tughril Amin stated that the missile ambitions of the two countries reflect different priorities.
Amin pointed out, "Pakistan's missile program is entirely aimed at India and is defensive in nature, while India's ambitions go beyond this subcontinent. India's long-range missile systems are intended for global power projection, particularly targeting China and establishing its status as a major power with a reliable deterrent capability over key nations," Amin, who is also the author of "The Evolution of Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia," said.
However, some experts say that Pakistan's missile development plans are not solely for India.
Ashley Tellis, chairman of strategic affairs at the Tata Chair at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated, "India hopes to strike both China and Pakistan," while Pakistan is also building capabilities to include Israel (and even the United States) in its range besides India.
Tellis told Al Jazeera, "The conventional missile forces of both countries aim to strike key targets without endangering manned attack aircraft."
U.S. Concerns About Pakistan's Ambitions, While Tolerating India's Rise
Last December, White House senior official Jon Finer warned about Pakistan's growing ambitions, which brought attention to its missile program.
Finer was serving in the Biden administration at the time, and he considered Pakistan's pursuit of advanced missile technology as an "emerging threat" to the United States.
August 14, 2025, Islamabad, Pakistan - Pakistan publicly displayed its Fateh-4 missile on the eve of its 78th Independence Day (AP)
Finer stated during an event, "If this trend continues, Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets far beyond South Asia, even including targets in the United States."
On the other hand, Tellis believes that the United States and its allies do not see India's growing arsenal as destabilizing.
Tellis explained, "In contrast, Pakistan's nuclear capabilities are considered unsettling because its early nuclear program had an anti-Western tone - a particular anti-American sentiment emerged after the 9/11 attacks and the Abbottabad airstrike," referring to the 2011 incident where the United States captured Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.
Scholar Ahmed, based in Canberra, said that India's long-range missile development is openly supported by Western countries as part of the U.S.-led Asia-Pacific strategy.
"The United States and European powers have consistently encouraged India to act as a net security provider. The Indo-U.S. civilian nuclear agreement and the exemption from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) effectively granted India a de facto nuclear weapons status without signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty," Ahmed said.
The Non-Proliferation Treaty is a Cold War-era treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and advancing nuclear disarmament goals. The treaty formally recognizes only five nuclear-armed states: the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom.
However, India received an exemption from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (a club of 48 countries that sell nuclear materials and technology) in 2008, allowing it to participate in global nuclear trade, even though it is not a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This unique status also elevated India's global standing.
However, Clary from the University at Albany pointed out that unlike the Biden administration, the current Trump administration has not expressed any concerns about Pakistan's missile program or India's Agni-V missile test.
"As long as Pakistan limits its missile tests to the ranges already demonstrated by the Hatf-III and Ababeel missiles, I expect Western governments not to pay too much attention to missile developments in South Asia," he noted, "because there are plenty of other issues for them to deal with."
Sources: Al Jazeera
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