U.S. Vice President said today: "We don't want to still be in Iran a year from now, or even two years from now. We're handling this situation, and we'll be leaving soon—and oil prices will come down."
Vance's remarks come amid a deadlock in U.S.-Iran tensions, mounting domestic economic pressures, and open rifts with its Israeli ally, as the administration seeks an exit strategy for a "dignified withdrawal."
After a month of fighting, the United States finds itself unable to either leave or win. What was originally planned as a swift campaign has turned into a protracted war of attrition. Vance’s assertion that "oil prices will fall" directly addresses America’s most acute domestic pain point. Nationwide gasoline prices have surged by approximately 35% over the past month, and Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for U.S. economic recession probability to 30%. For Trump’s administration, facing midterm elections, high oil prices are a more dangerous political threat than war itself.
It’s not so easy to leave
Although Vance speaks firmly, leaving isn’t straightforward—the promises of a "quick departure" and "falling oil prices" face two major obstacles:
As long as the shipping threat in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, or energy infrastructure continues to suffer damage, oil prices will struggle to decline. Experts point out that even if a ceasefire were announced tomorrow, repairing damaged oil and gas facilities would take several months.
Meanwhile, Houthi forces have launched missile strikes on Israel, claiming to cut off the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—adding fuel to the fire of soaring oil prices.
Israel undermines U.S. plans: Just as the U.S. signaled intentions to withdraw, Israel’s prime minister ordered intensified military strikes against Iranian targets, aiming to destroy Iran’s combat capabilities to the maximum extent before any ceasefire is reached.
In sum, Vance’s statements appear more like a public reassurance to domestic voters that "the war is nearly over," rather than a binding commitment fully within U.S. unilateral control. Such empty assurances may offer temporary relief but won’t last. Once the promises fail to materialize, public discontent could intensify—posing a serious vulnerability for Trump.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860959655956620/
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