Putin proposes Ukraine to hand over Donbas region for a ceasefire CNN analyzes five possible developments
Putin proposed that Ukraine hand over the Donbas region in exchange for a ceasefire. European and Ukrainian officials said they are concerned that Putin is merely using this proposal as a ploy to avoid new punitive U.S. sanctions and tariffs, while continuing the war.
According to the Wall Street Journal on the 9th, Russian President Putin conveyed this proposal to U.S. envoy Wittkov in Moscow. The report stated that if the Ukrainian authorities and the Ukrainian armed forces agree to withdraw all their troops from the eastern part of Donetsk, Russian President Putin would propose a comprehensive ceasefire.
Russian forces currently control most of Donetsk, but the Ukrainian army still maintains a considerable portion of the area. According to the future ceasefire agreement, Russia will control the Donetsk region, Luhansk region, and the Crimea peninsula occupied in 2014, and then withdraw its troops from Kharkiv region, Sumy region, etc.
This proposal by Putin has caused diplomatic confusion, with all sides eager to further clarify the details of the proposal. European officials expressed serious reservations about the proposal, which would require Ukraine to hand over the region known as Donbas in the east, while Russia made almost no other commitments besides a promise of a ceasefire.
European and Ukrainian officials received briefings in a series of calls with U.S. President Trump and Wittkov this week, and they said they were worried that Putin was merely using this proposal as a ploy to avoid new punitive U.S. sanctions and tariffs, while continuing the war.
According to the analysis by the United States, the ceasefire would be implemented in two stages. In the first stage, the Ukrainian army would withdraw from the Donetsk region, freezing the front lines and ceasing hostilities. In the second stage, Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump would finalize the ultimate peace plan, and the ceasefire plan would then be negotiated with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.
CNN analyzes five possible developments of the Russia-Ukraine war
Regarding the possible developments of the Russia-Ukraine war, according to CNN's analysis:
First, it is highly unlikely that Putin will agree to an unconditional ceasefire. The Kremlin has no short-term motive for a ceasefire, and even if Trump pressures Beijing and India, threatening secondary sanctions, it is difficult to change his military plans for this summer. At least until October, Putin will continue to fight.
Second, pragmatic approach and more negotiations. The results of the talks may only be to reschedule for later, wait for winter to regroup, and resume fighting in 2026, or use diplomacy to make the gains permanent. The Russian side may also question the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, promoting pro-Russian candidates.
Third, Ukraine tries to survive the next two years. Military aid from the U.S. and Europe allows Ukraine to keep the frontline concessions minimal in the coming months, forcing Putin to seek negotiations when the Russian army faces renewed setbacks. This is the best scenario Ukraine can hope for.
Fourth, a disaster for Ukraine and NATO. If the "two-Putin meetings" improve U.S.-Russia relations, Ukraine will have to fend for itself, and even if Europe fully supports it, without U.S. backing, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The Ukrainian army may gradually lose ground, and the manpower crisis will turn into a political disaster under greater mobilization demands, leading to the end of Ukraine's sovereignty.
Fifth, a disaster for Putin, repeating the Soviet tragedy in Afghanistan. Russian forces may continue to gain limited victories at high casualties, sanctions eroding its relationship with China, and income from India, sovereign wealth funds, and fiscal revenues weakening.
It is clear from this that the only relatively favorable situation for Ukraine still relies on continued military aid and security guarantees from the West to allow Ukraine to hold the front lines. However, if the future peace agreement does not include Ukraine in the core negotiations, relying only on the "two-Putin" meeting, it is likely difficult to produce a truly lasting and beneficial ceasefire plan for Kyiv.
As for Trump, his motivation may be to fulfill campaign promises and shape a peace-making image, but his attitude towards Putin has always been ambiguous.
According to another article by CNN, the summit location itself carries symbolic significance. Putin is trying to sell his "land deal of the century" on this former Russian territory in Alaska; the article then warned that Putin has finally received an invitation to visit the U.S. after ten years, and can discuss a potential agreement that would allow him to gain some land without fighting, without Ukraine. The article concluded that even though the summit is still several days away, all current signs indicate that the situation "resembles a slow defeat for Kyiv."
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1840109811044352/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.