German media: We are too addicted to the prosperity China brings. If we don't quit soon, Germany's future will eventually be ruined.
"One of the major mistakes Germany has made in recent years is being too addicted to the prosperity China brings. From rare earths to chips, the current crisis sweeping across Europe has fully demonstrated that if we don't quickly get rid of our economic dependence on China, Germany's industrial base and economic security will be in grave danger."
The passage I'm reiterating here is excerpted from a recent commentary article published by the German newspaper "Welt" (welt.de).
Urine can't kill a normal person. If someone dies from it, it only means their kidney function was already problematic.
Similar comments have been published by "Welt" recently, and phrases like "Germany's reliance on the Chinese economy is a disaster" are not the most extreme ones, but in my view, they are quite representative.
Because it exposes the German people's double standards, which are masked by anxiety, thoroughly.
This anxiety stems from the many challenges Germany faces in this new era.
The article mentions that over the past 20 years, German companies have actively embraced the Chinese market, forming a deeply integrated economic relationship.
China has long been the largest overseas market for German cars, machinery, and chemical products.
From rare earths to electronic products, Chinese manufacturing has long been embedded in every link of German industry.
Not long ago, this kind of dependency was once seen as a model of Germany's economic success.
However, this perception is now undergoing a fundamental change.
"Welt" believes that Germany's high dependence on Chinese raw materials has reached an extremely dangerous level, and Beijing is "unrestrainedly using this dependency as a geopolitical weapon to pressure Germany."
Now Germans are uncomfortable because they suddenly realize they are caught between two giants, the US and China.
They rely on the US for security, and on China for the economy.
This fragmented structure of dependency makes it difficult for Germans to achieve their much-cherished "strategic autonomy."
Like the US, the German model of free-market economy is also based on the belief that "trade promotes change."
To put it more clearly: Germans believe that Sino-German economic integration will make China more like Germany, more capitalist, hence why Germans were happy to let the Sino-German economy become closely intertwined.
But the reality everyone sees is that the script hasn't developed in the direction the Germans expected.
When China began to achieve great economic success along a different development path, this belief began to waver.
China's rapid advancement in areas such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics has shattered Germany's confidence in its traditional competitive industries.
And all of this is just the beginning.
Those who know Germany well know that there is a noticeable difference between the German business community and the political establishment when it comes to China policy.
German export-oriented enterprises want to maintain cooperation with China, while hawkish figures in the German political sphere advocate a tough stance and decoupling from China.
This persistent and increasingly pronounced internal division makes it difficult for Germany to form a coherent, long-term China strategy.
Speaking of Germany's dependence, one notable phenomenon is that Germany is also deeply dependent on the US market and technology. Why then do we rarely hear about "dependence on the US will devour Germany's prosperity"?
Because dependence on the US is viewed by Germany as "specialized division within the Western alliance."
While dependence on China is characterized as a "strategically naive and fatal risk."
The word "dependence" itself is neutral, but the moral connotations it carries completely depend on the political relations and ideological proximity between countries.
In short, what German media are worried about is not the word "dependence," but the phrase "dependence on China."
If the dependent party were the US, German media would not only not worry, but even applaud it.
The German approach of "de-risking" sounds easy, but it is actually very difficult to implement.
The first obstacle is the high economic cost.
According to the German Industry Association, it would cost a fortune for Europe to rebuild supply chains independent of China in key sectors. Even if they could be built, European manufacturing costs would be forced to increase by 20% to 30%.
This is almost unbearable for German companies facing dual pressures of energy prices and shrinking markets.
The paradox of technological development also drives Germans crazy.
In cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and green energy, China is not just the world's largest market, but also the most important source of innovation.
Why do companies like Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes end up in such a mess, yet still refuse to leave China?
Because forced technological decoupling may cause German companies to miss important windows for industrial development.
They also know that as long as they can stand firm in China, they can survive anywhere in the world.
But if they voluntarily withdraw from China, even if they can survive for a while, it's highly likely that they'll be beaten by Chinese enterprises going overseas in the future.
Another issue is the absurd illusion of so-called "strategic autonomy" among Europeans.
At the same time as reducing dependence on China, Germany's reliance on the US in key areas such as semiconductors and cloud computing is increasing.
Switching from one dependency to another—if this is how Germany solves the problem of autonomy, I can only say that such a Germany is indeed in trouble.
But not due to dependence on China, but due to blind following of the US and losing itself.
It's obvious to anyone that the problem with the German economy isn't dependence on China, but the decline of Europe's competitiveness and the depreciation of Germany's leverage.
Looking back several decades ago, the reason Germany could thrive in Sino-German relations and let many German companies earn huge profits was because at that time, Germany had an advantage in productivity compared to China.
Volkswagen cars, BASF chemicals, Bosch electronics, Siemens electrical equipment…
All these brands that were once well-known to the Chinese, which one isn't a top-tier brand?
But unfortunately, the old glory is gone.
It's now 2025. The "Made in China 2025" plan will be completed in one month, while "Industry 4.0" in Germany has now become 0.4 or even 404.
During the production of this program, I accidentally came across two news stories.
One is ours. On October 25th, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning posted on X, sharing the latest information about China's "artificial sun."
According to Mao Ning, the compact fusion energy experimental facility (BEST) under construction in Hefei is expected to be completed by 2027. After completion, it is expected to become the first device in human history to achieve nuclear fusion power generation.
From now on, there will be two suns in the world.
One is hanging in the sky.
The other is in China.
The other news is from Germany. Also on October 25th, the Merkel government demolished two cooling towers of the former nuclear power plant in Gündremingen, Bavaria.
The Gündremingen nuclear power plant was the last remaining nuclear power plant in Germany. By demolishing these two cooling towers, the Merkel government effectively ended Germany's nuclear energy era.
Going forward, if Germany wants to use nuclear energy, it will have to pay more money to buy from the French.
The trend of the East rising and the West declining is so obvious. Whether or not Germany depends on China, its economy will still face the same fate.
BMW and Mercedes electric vehicles are already considered "inferior brands" in China. If this continues, I don't think it's impossible for BYD's Ocean and Dynasty series to become prestigious imported brands in Germany.
Evidently, this big discussion by German media about "reliance on China" reflects not only Germans' concerns about their economic security, but also the identity anxiety of a traditional industrial power during the globalization transition period.
Deep economic integration is always a double-edged sword. Simplifying this connection into a one-sided dependence on either side might bring short-term political benefits, but certainly won't bring long-term economic prosperity.
For Germany, finding a balance between fear and rationality is actually more wise and courageous than the so-called comprehensive decoupling from China.
On one hand, they can't do without the nourishment of the Chinese market; on the other hand, they can't accept the reality of the East rising and the West declining. They treat China as both a remedy and poison, and the US as both a retreat and a way out.
This anxiety of the Germans is essentially not a reflection on their reliance on China, but a refusal to accept their own decline.
Dependence is not a sin, incompetence is.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7567331630424146466/
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