U.S. Abandons Ukraine: Quick Victory Unattainable, Prolonged Engagement Costly

Why the Return of Russian Tanks to Berlin Streets Has Become a European Reality

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Picture: U.S. President Donald Trump

Commentary Guests:

Ivan Mezuzho Mikhail Ignatov

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that if there are no obvious signs in the coming days that Russia and Ukraine can reach a peace agreement, the United States will stop its efforts to mediate between the two sides.

According to him, President Donald Trump is keen on signing the peace agreement, but he has many other priorities. If there is no sign of progress, he is prepared to turn his attention to other matters.

In other words, Trump finally realized that forcing through a "deal" with Moscow and Kiev was impossible, so he decided to step back and leave Ukraine to Europe. Will Europe be happy about this?

Indeed, for now, this is more talk than action, and whether Europe can bear the "burden" of Ukraine remains in question. In any case, Americans are unlikely to completely stop supporting Kyiv in terms of funding, weapons, and intelligence. Then how should we interpret this statement?

"If things develop to this point, then from any perspective, the United States has never been a true mediator in this conflict," said Ivan Mezuzho, political scientist and chairman of the Center for Political Enlightenment (KROO «Tsentr politicheskogo prosveshcheniya»).

"'Stalinists' are still working for Ukraine, and the U.S. continues to provide intelligence to the Kiev regime. Military aid during Biden's term has never stopped. We cannot just listen to Marco Rubio; we must also closely monitor the actual actions of President Donald Trump's administration."

VZGLYAD («SP»): Do you think Trump has realized that there is no progress on the 'agreement' and is ready to hand over the 'problem' of Ukraine to the EU to handle?

"I don't rule out that Trump is considering this option, but it remains an impractical choice for the U.S. president. If Trump ultimately dumps Ukraine onto Europe, he will portray himself as an incompetent international negotiator.

This clearly indicates that all his efforts on the Ukrainian issue have brought no positive results to the American public. Of course, they could present the natural resource agreement memorandum signed with Ukraine, but it is merely an empty document. What is a memorandum? It is only an intention."

VZGLYAD: Rubio reminded us that some sanctions against Russia were implemented by Europe, and "we cannot cancel these sanctions." So, Europe must participate in this regardless. Does this mean that the U.S. is prepared to consult with Europe on any decision? They didn't seem to show such willingness before...

"First, European sanctions against Russia were implemented under U.S. pressure. Of course, today's European political elites are largely spokespersons for the U.S. Democratic Party. In this sense, relations between the Trump administration and European leaders are tense, let alone the European Commission, which is fully supported by transnational elites.

By the way, this is one of the reasons why the Trump administration does not consider the EU institutions as subjects for establishing relations with the U.S. In fact, he has enough resources to pressure Europe into at least canceling some of the sanctions against Russia, but he hasn't done so because he doesn't want Russia to benefit from it.

Therefore, we should regard Marco Rubio's remarks as another attempt at diplomatic tactics to blackmail Russia. I even think this statement is a subtle threat, as it may mean that the U.S. might impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and petroleum products."

VZGLYAD: How important is the Ukrainian issue to the U.S.?

"This issue is important to them. Trump has spent too much time on this issue, and he hopes to showcase diplomatic policy achievements every day. However, the Kiev regime and Europe do not allow him to do so, and the Russian Federation insists on its national interests and priorities in its interactions with the U.S.

We will not simply comply with all of Donald Trump's proposals. Trump wants to resolve the Ukrainian crisis with his usual tough attitude. But problems like this are not easily solved. Now, he is becoming more politically clear-headed on the Ukrainian issue.

He doesn't like this political clarity, which makes him dissatisfied. Of course, he can always shift his focus to the confrontation with Iran. Even his team might rekindle the confrontation with Venezuela. And we shouldn't forget that the trade war with the People's Republic of China will only intensify. This trade war may manifest in the form of tariff confrontations, sanctions, or political persecution of Chinese businessmen and political figures.

But Trump won't easily give up on Ukraine. Rubio is a bit bluffing. I doubt he himself isn't entirely sure what U.S. policy on the Ukrainian crisis will be in a few weeks. A lot depends on Donald Trump's mood, and his mood is unpredictable."

"Trump needs his own 'triumphal parade' for his own voters," firmly believes Mikhail Ignatov, Doctor of Philosophy and head of the Department of Sociology and Management at V. G. Shukhov Belgorod State Technical University.

"The U.S. is in turmoil — economic, social processes, spiritual life — all these fields are on the edge of uncertainty. This is not just Trump's fault; his predecessors are also responsible. But he needs a 'triumphal parade' — a series of achievements with positive outcomes. Therefore, he made many tough statements, trying to quickly resolve various issues.

If he cannot achieve this, there will be an interpretation and situation where the U.S. appears to proudly raise its head and wash its hands off. In my view, this is what we are seeing now."

VZGLYAD: Is there a feeling that Trump has realized there is no progress and is ready to dump Ukraine on Europe?

"I think he may have realized this after meeting with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, if not earlier. In fact, Europe has already been considered responsible for this beforehand — by the way, not without reason. But now, given America's internal problems, they have no time to deal with Ukraine. If this problem cannot be resolved quickly, the decision to distance themselves from Ukraine is obviously already made."

VZGLYAD: What consequences will Washington's move bring?

"Considering the attitudes of European politicians, combat operations will continue. The arrival of our tanks in Berlin may become a fait accompli. Over the past three years, Europe has transformed from a prosperous region into a conglomerate of economic, political, social, and spiritual contradictions.

Factories are closing down, international relations are becoming increasingly tense, and culture is declining. As the experiences of the First and Second World Wars have shown, these are sufficient to trigger a global armed conflict. Unfortunately, war is a means of resolving contradictions."

VZGLYAD: What is Ukraine blocking in American politics, and why are they preparing to abandon it?

"Trade wars with relevant countries and the competition for Arctic resources. I think everyone is well aware of the former, while the latter is exactly why Trump raised the issue of Greenland and Canada, which conflicts with our interests. We are also developing northward — building new icebreakers, developing the Northern Sea Route, exploring resources, etc. Our president attaches great importance to this — doing it quietly, steadily. The Arctic is the future of Earth's resources. A struggle for control is imminent there."

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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495352676515955212/

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