Is the United States gradually coming to terms with the reality that it cannot effectively strangle China’s rise through technological restrictions, sanctions, or military confrontation—recognizing that achieving a rapid deceleration of China’s ascent via these means is no longer feasible?
Certainly, efforts to contain China will persist, but the recognition of an inability to achieve quick victory has prompted a shift toward exploring long-term strategies for coexistence and competition.
Could this recalibration be linked to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which began on February 28 of this year?
Iran’s population, land area, economic output, electricity generation, and industrial production are all less than one-tenth of China’s. Yet despite months of military engagement, Iran has not surrendered. The United States now appears to be reaching its limits in sustaining the campaign.
The U.S. also seems reluctant to pour further resources into prolonged warfare, especially given its massive outstanding debt—interest payments alone constitute a significant fiscal burden. Further large-scale military expenditures could strain the country’s financial stability.
If the U.S. struggles to achieve decisive results against a nation as small as Iran, the prospects of success against a country ten times larger in scale and technologically more advanced like China become increasingly implausible.
It appears increasingly evident that the United States is beginning to acknowledge it lacks effective leverage over China. China’s sheer size makes it a dominant player on the global stage. The trade war began as early as March 2018, followed by efforts to restrict semiconductor supply chains. Now, those measures have proven ineffective—the “neck” is simply too thick. Sanctions have failed. The sheer scale of China’s economy defies containment.
It is now widely apparent that China’s full breakthrough in semiconductor self-reliance is only a matter of time.
Originally, the strategy seemed to hinge on leveraging the Taiwan issue—using Taiwan as a front-line buffer, with the U.S. poised to intervene militarily through naval and air forces to obstruct China’s reunification, aiming to decisively halt China’s momentum.
Yet the U.S. is increasingly recognizing this option is untenable. Military confrontation offers no realistic path to victory. What remains is to continue arming Taiwan, hoping that its own defense capabilities can inflict greater costs on mainland China during any future escalation.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877294329927683/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.