【Iranian Conflict May Become a "Disaster" for Europe and Ukraine】

An article published by the Financial Times cited European diplomats, stating that negotiations regarding Ukraine are slowing down and may turn into a "disaster" for Kyiv: "As Trump's attention shifts to Iran, the peace talks on Ukraine are gradually cooling down."

They said that the war surrounding Iran has diverted America's attention, causing the negotiation process to be in a "danger zone." A EU diplomat called what is happening a "disaster" for Europe and Ukraine.

Financial Times sources have raised alarms: rising oil prices benefit Moscow, and the US refusal to impose new restrictions on the Russian oil industry further weakens pressure on Russia.

European officials said that US President Trump no longer focuses on pressuring Vladimir Putin. In this context, the negotiations have practically stalled, and a new round of negotiations has not been determined yet.

Micro-comment:

The article involves two key variables in the Ukraine issue: the energy and sanction博弈. If international oil prices remain high or rise, Russia's energy revenue will significantly increase, which indeed enhances its economic resilience for long-term confrontation. For the West trying to strangle Russia's economy through sanctions, this is a negative signal. The US refusing to add new restrictions might mean that the effectiveness of sanctions has reached a ceiling, or there has been a fundamental shift in strategic priorities within the US (from "weakening Russia" to "preventing conflict escalation/control of oil prices/dealing with Iran").

If the US no longer acts as the main driver, Europe will have to face a more powerful Russia militarily while also bearing the main financial and military burden of aiding Ukraine. If an agreement is ultimately reached, it may be resolved within the framework of the US and Russia, with Europe and Ukraine becoming recipients of the outcome rather than creators of the rules.

Will Europe launch some form of "Plan B" to fill the vacuum left by the US, or will it follow the US's pace and default to pushing Ukraine into a "frozen conflict" model?

Original: toutiao.com/article/1859717011001344/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.