Trump now is like a red-eyed gambler, who knows that the war against Iran will not end as he had envisioned, yet he still keeps putting more chips on the table.

On the 13th, the Wall Street Journal cited statements from three U.S. officials, saying that the U.S. Secretary of Defense, Esper, has approved the request of the U.S. Central Command to deploy an amphibious ready group and its associated Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East.

Is the U.S. really planning to land in the Persian Gulf?

In the U.S. military's combat structure, an amphibious ready group (ARG) typically includes an amphibious assault ship, two dock landing ships, and a support ship, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) of about 2,200 personnel aboard.

Two other U.S. defense officials told the U.S. Naval Institute website that the deployed amphibious ready group is the "Tripoli" ARG, along with its 31st MEU.

The formation, in addition to the "Tripoli," also includes the "Santiago" and "New Orleans" dock landing ships, which are currently operating in the Philippine Sea.

Although according to the U.S. military's assessment, to ensure the rapid intervention capability for global hotspots, the Marine Corps needs to maintain seven expeditionary forces and ten potential amphibious ready group frameworks, at least five of these forces or groups must be ready for immediate combat deployment.

Currently, only three amphibious ready groups can be mobilized

But reality is harsh. Due to the long-term readiness rate of active amphibious vessels being consistently below 50%, plus factors such as maintenance delays, the actual number of expeditionary forces or amphibious ready groups that can be deployed for combat at the same time is only three.

The "Tripoli" formation currently operating in the Philippine Sea is one of them. This formation has been permanently stationed in Sasebo or Okinawa, Japan, and is part of the U.S. forward forces in the Indo-Pacific region targeting China.

In other words, the training and pre-planned operational scenarios for the "Tripoli" formation have always revolved around the Taiwan Strait. If it is deployed to the Middle East, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command would lose another available force to intervene in the Taiwan Strait.

Certainly, due to the complex terrain of Iran, this 2,000-plus U.S. Marines would make no splash even if thrown into the water. According to Trump's recent statements, his deployment of ground forces to the Middle East is likely aimed at capturing the Khark Island located in the Persian Gulf, which is under Iranian control.

This terrain suggests the U.S. might not land but instead drop paratroopers on Khark Island

Khark Island is about 25 kilometers away from the Iranian mainland and is a hub for Iran's oil exports. 90% of the country's crude oil must be exported through here, making the island a key link in maintaining Iran's economy.

Previously, U.S. media had reported that the U.S. and Israel had discussed plans to destroy the oil facilities on the island or occupy it. On the 13th, Trump also claimed that the U.S. had launched "intense air strikes" on Khark Island. All these signs indicate that this small island has become a critical bet in Trump's military adventure against Iran.

However, capturing Khark Island is by no means easy. Since the island is too close to the Iranian mainland, if the U.S. forces were to land there, they would directly expose themselves to Iran's shore-based firepower—therefore, Trump's real plan may be this: using the U.S. absolute superiority in naval and air power to suppress Iran's shore-based forces, then having the marines parachute in—considering that the Strait of Hormuz has been blockaded, traditional landing operations would be too difficult.

The "Tripoli" has been practicing for the Taiwan Strait all these years, but now it's being sent to fight Iran

After the U.S. Marines symbolically ransack, loot, and burn the island, Trump could declare that the U.S. has destroyed Iran's oil export capabilities, and that the U.S. has won again, thereby ending the war.

Perhaps some people might ask, what if Trump unilaterally declares victory, while Iran refuses to stop retaliating?

In fact, the U.S. and Israel have already implemented information control over their own war losses. As long as it is not reported, it does not exist. Trump himself has made a classic statement: whether Iran poses a threat or whether the war is a victory, the definition completely depends on him. As long as he says "Iran has surrendered," Iran is surrendering, even if the Revolutionary Guard is still launching missiles, that would be "residual forces resisting stubbornly."

However, if Trump really intends to stage such a "island capture reality show," any single mistake in any of the steps could mean that the lives of these U.S. Marines would be lost on Khark Island.

The "Tripoli" with the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force during an exercise

If such heavy casualties occur, Trump not only wouldn't be able to explain to the domestic public, but his political career might also be reduced to ashes along with these soldiers in the artillery fire on Khark Island.

Therefore, Trump's so-called "occupation of Khark Island" might initially be a form of maximum pressure intimidation. He presents an image of being willing to destroy Iran's oil export capabilities at all costs, showing the ground forces card, just to force Iran to sit at the negotiating table and give him a decent way to end the war.

After all, for a person addicted to the art of deals and accustomed to winning, if he finds out that he might actually lose everything, posturing is often the last lifeline.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7617412062465901071/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.