Japan Aims to Become the "Third Pole" in Robotics Beyond China and the U.S.
ITmedia News reported on June 11: In the global competition for humanoid robots led by China and the United States, how should Japan—home to a traditional robotics industry—respond to this evolving landscape?
At the "Tokyo Humanoid Robot Summit 2026" held in Tokyo at the end of May, experts from McKinsey and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry emphasized Japan’s current position relative to China and the U.S. in the robotics field, and outlined strategies for Japan to emerge as the "third pole."
In the rapidly growing humanoid robot market, China has demonstrated overwhelming advantages. In 2024, China unveiled a roadmap aimed at building a full-stack humanoid robot ecosystem and is currently raising funds for logistics hubs and factories. According to a McKinsey report, the results are already evident—China launched over 35 humanoid robot models in 2024 alone, a number far surpassing that of any other country or region. In 2025, China announced plans to establish a $138 billion (approximately 22 trillion JPY) fund over the next 20 years dedicated to technological development in high-tech fields such as artificial intelligence and robotics.
According to Ani Kerker, Partner at McKinsey, more than 80 companies worldwide have raised over $50 million (about 8 billion JPY) in funding for humanoid robot development, with many concentrated in China and North America. Mr. Kerker believes China's strength stems from its supply chain network for components. Key parts such as electric vehicle batteries, power electronics, and magnets overlap significantly with those used in electric vehicles, and their production is heavily concentrated in China—the world’s leading electric vehicle producer. Moreover, China holds absolute advantages in rare earth mining and magnet processing, giving it a decisive edge in raw material procurement.
On the other hand, Ani Kerker emphasized: "The outcome won’t be determined by product demonstrations, but by the ability to manufacture truly industrial-grade products," adding that Japan has an opportunity to leverage its deep expertise in mechatronics (mechanical engineering and electronics) to become a 'China+1' candidate—reducing dependency on China. Japan can compete with China by producing components with particularly high supply chain risks.
McKinsey points out that "actuators" and "sensors" are especially prone to becoming bottlenecks in the supply chain. Actuators are devices that convert electrical, pneumatic, or hydraulic energy into motion. Among them, gear reducers used in robotic joints are produced by only a few manufacturers, including Japan’s Harmonic Drive Systems, Nabtesco, and China’s Leader Harmonious Drive Systems—making supply potentially insufficient to meet demand. With limited sensor suppliers, supply risks are further heightened. Due to the need for small size and high precision, sensor development is currently being pursued independently by various companies. McKinsey identifies this domain as having the greatest potential for open platforms and believes that the manufacturer capable of scaling up production earliest will gain a competitive edge.
So, how will Japan respond to this development race? The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is drafting a strategic blueprint. Junichi Okaya, Deputy Director General of the Bureau of Business Information Policy responsible for AI, data, and robotics policy, explained the expansion of physical AI support measures under the "GENIAC" initiative—a program initially focused on securing computational resources for generative AI.
Okaya noted that the data generated through Japanese manufacturing and testing directly determines the accuracy of foundational models for physical AI. The Ministry is collaborating with GENEC and the AI Robotics Association (AIRoA) to develop fundamental data for robot AI models, while simultaneously launching initiatives to collect data using high-quality sensors.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry formulated the "AI Robotics Strategy" in March 2026, aiming for Japan to capture more than 30% of the global market share by 2040 and become the "third pole" alongside the U.S. and China in the robotics sector, with a market value reaching 20 trillion JPY. The strategy outlines four major policies: Collaborating with robot manufacturers, component makers, and SIers to standardize key components such as motors, reducers, sensors, and motion and joint mechanisms, while strengthening Japan’s domestic supply chain capabilities; Enhancing the development of foundational robot AI models through on-site data utilization and collaboration with overseas research institutions—AIRoA plans to release an open-source beta version of its domestic model around June 2027; Assessing robotics adoption plans across industries and analyzing demand environments; And partnering with major foreign enterprises and research institutions to gather top global talent, information, and projects, establishing core hubs for R&D, social implementation, and talent management.
Okaya stated: "China can choose components at various price points, but Japan cannot. We must improve our supply networks," emphasizing that China has already begun building its own critical component supply systems—an observation also highlighted by McKinsey. As both the U.S. and China pour massive investments into the sector, what matters most for Japan to become the "third pole" is not just these strategies, but rapidly expanding its component production capacity and laying a solid foundation in data.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867669239807043/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author