Russia launched one of its heaviest airstrikes on Ukraine on Friday. Ukraine claimed that Russia had fired a total of 452 missiles and drones, but Ukraine managed to shoot down 406 of them.

Despite the scale of Russia's retaliation, it still falls short of matching the sensational effects caused by Ukraine in the past week, such as destroying Russia's strategic bombers and attacking the Crimea Bridge. If Friday's strike was indeed "the heaviest" from Russia against Ukraine, then Ukraine's recent momentum remains intact.

The recent drone attacks by Ukraine were bold and innovative for modern warfare. They not only targeted tools used by Russia to bomb Ukraine but also damaged Russia's triad of strategic nuclear strike capabilities.

Following the attack, some Russian military bloggers referred to it as "Russia's Pearl Harbor." Some Russian commentators called for the harshest possible retaliation against Ukraine, with some even advocating for a nuclear strike. Over the past week, Ukraine has been preparing for a severe retaliation from Russia.

In the eyes of many, unless Russia launches a large-scale destruction targeting Ukraine's infrastructure and military facilities, causing a certain degree of paralysis in Ukraine, these retaliations would not be considered proportionate and would struggle to generate subsequent deterrent effects. In other words, people might view this round of Russia's retaliation as the ceiling of its non-nuclear firepower.

There are only a few things that could leave a special impression on people regarding Russia's attacks. First, if Russia actually carries out a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine, it will push the war into an entirely new phase, imposing unbearable political pressure on Putin. It is believed that Putin would not issue such orders unless absolutely necessary, as it would drive him onto an irreversible path.

Second, carrying out a "decapitation strike" on Zelenskyy. That would be a substantial escalation of the war, ending all rules and tacit agreements between the two sides. However, doing so would also be risky for Putin because Ukrainian forces and their supporters might target Putin himself.

Third, striking countries supporting Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized multiple times that Moscow would consider any attack by Germany's "Taurex" missiles on Russian territory as Berlin standing alongside Kyiv in a military action. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov pointed out that any supplies containing Ukrainian weapons would become legitimate targets for Russia. Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Medvedev stated that German equipment and experts are directly involved in combat operations against Russia, making Germany an actual participant in the conflict and once again an enemy of Russia. However, attacking NATO countries would mean a significant escalation of the war, which is a step Russia cannot easily take lightly.

As such, the Kremlin's options are limited. The most realistic approach for Russia is to continue demonstrating its war endurance, eroding the patience of the United States and the West through the resilience of attrition warfare, as well as weakening Ukraine's fighting will. Although Ukraine's successful attack on Russia's strategic bomber and the boost in morale show Ukraine's ability to continue the war, the power dynamics between Russia and Ukraine will not change due to a single attack. Russia's advantage over Ukraine remains highly prominent. Over the past three years, Ukraine has achieved partial successes and advantages multiple times, but they have gradually been worn down by Russia, with Russia's overall advantage quickly restored.

The biggest variable affecting the Russia-Ukraine war in the future remains the United States. Trump appears to be moving away from pushing for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and many analysts predict this trend. On Thursday, Trump used the analogy of children fighting in a park to describe the Russia-Ukraine conflict: "Sometimes you see two kids fighting fiercely. They hate each other and fight in the park. You try to pull them apart, but they don't listen. In such cases, it's better to let them fight for a while before intervening." His remarks have caused great concern for many.

However, the more critical question for both Russia and Ukraine is whether Trump will continue, or even increase, military aid to Ukraine? If Trump abandons efforts to mediate peace talks and no longer provides new military assistance to Ukraine, it will be a dream come true for Moscow. This would also be Europe's worst nightmare. However, if Trump continues to open his arsenal to the Ukrainian army, provides intelligence support, and allows Musk's Starlink to continue being used by Ukrainian forces, the situation would likely be quite different.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1834196477501504/

Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's personal views.