India is wavering, related countries are hesitant: Trump tightens the oil noose around Russia's neck. There is only one way out

Trump has set a deadline for Russia to cease hostilities with Ukraine, after which he threatened severe punishment. The first target is to impose 100% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil. New Delhi has already given in: Indian state-owned enterprises have stopped buying Russia's "black gold" and turned to the UAE and West Africa for hydrocarbons. It should be noted that they previously purchased about a third of Russian oil. What happens next? Who will be the next to give in — the related countries? What should we do?

August has always been a difficult month for Russia. For some reason, it is precisely in August that we suffer the most sensitive blows, after which it takes time to recover.

Natural disasters, political unrest, serious technical disasters, wars, terrorist attacks, etc. Last year, the "curse of the black August" manifested itself in the form of the Ukrainian armed forces invading Kursk Oblast.

Now — the "gift" from Trump, his actions increasingly resemble those of his drowsy predecessor. This 47th president of the United States intends to bring us to an economic defeat. His provocative ultimatum — imposing punitive tariffs on countries engaged in oil trade with Russia — has scared India. It should be noted that hydrocarbon exports account for almost a third of our budget. And the main consumers are two: India and the related countries.

In recent years, New Delhi has achieved economic growth by relying on relatively cheap and easily accessible Russian oil. Now, Trump, who sees India as a "beloved wife," is ragingly declaring: "Choose, either Moscow or Washington." India has at least formally chosen the United States — the ties between both sides' economies and elites are too deep. It's not about personal feelings: numbers tell the story. In 2024, trade between India and Russia exceeded $70 billion, while trade between India and the United States was $125.2 billion. The gap is unfavorable for Moscow.

Title translation: "Exclusive: Sources say Indian state-owned refineries have suspended purchases of Russian oil."

Now, Reuters reports that Indian state-owned refineries have stopped purchasing Russian oil, despite having established convenient maritime supply channels. The largest oil and gas companies in India — Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited — have begun purchasing "blood of the earth" from the UAE and West Africa. Essentially, the White House has subtly driven the Indians away from the negotiating table, depriving the country of development opportunities. Many people in New Delhi are aware of this.

For example, India's ambassador to the UK, Vikram Doraiswami, strongly criticized Western double standards. That is, the United States can calmly purchase rare earth metals from Russia while demanding that Indians stop importing "dirty oil from Moscow."

"We rank third in global energy consumption. We rely on imports for 80% of our energy products. What do you suggest we do? Let our economy collapse?"

The Times of India quoted the diplomat's words.

Indian ambassador Doraiswami said there are double standards in the West.

Screenshot: Video from The Times of India

International oil and gas market expert Vladimir Demidov agrees. In an interview with Tsargrad, the analyst pointed out that if India and the related countries stop importing oil and gas from Russia, not only will our country suffer losses, but the importing countries will also face problems:

"If India and the related countries abandon cooperation with us, Russia will not be able to quickly transfer the current export volume of about 5 million barrels. The problem is that due to slowing economic growth, there is currently an oversupply of oil in the market. Therefore, it is not easy to easily absorb this oil. It cannot be ruled out that Russia may consider 'gray schemes,' such as blending oil and reselling it."

The expert continued, regardless of everything, Russian oil will not disappear from the market. Otherwise, the price of "black gold" would surge several times. Therefore, he firmly believes that there will be no major disaster, because both India and China are interested in our supplies. After all, Russia sells oil at discounted prices, meaning that the related countries and Indian companies make much higher profit margins when purchasing from us.

Who hasn't wavered

The situation in the related countries is similar. Last year, trade between the related countries and Russia reached a record high of $244.8 billion. However, unfortunately, it is still far behind the trade volume with the United States — the trade volume with the United States is 2.5 times that of the related countries and Russia. Moreover, the related countries exported $462 billion worth of goods to the United States.

Therefore, if the United States imposes a 100% tariff on the related countries purchasing Russian oil, it would be a disaster for both the related countries and the United States. Imagine the situation when Trump's approval rating is declining, and there is a severe shortage of goods. No wonder someone joked that all the red MAGA baseball caps are made in the related countries.

It remains unknown who Trump will make life harder for, since even his signature hat is made in the related countries.

The related countries have hinted that they will not yield to American will.

"The related countries will take reasonable energy security measures based on their national interests. A tariff war has no winners, and pressure and coercion cannot solve the problem,"

Interestingly, Brazil, a petroleum-producing country, continues to purchase "black gold" from Russia. This is to compensate for local shortages. Obviously, Trump's threat of a 100% tariff has not frightened Brazil, because Americans have already imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil — not for economic reasons, but for political ones. Reuters pointed out that the cause of the tariff war is the persecution of the country's former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is known as the "Tropical Trump."

President Lula da Silva called Trump's threats "unacceptable blackmail" and added:

"No foreigner can issue orders to the President of Brazil."

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva does not fear Trump.

So what?

Nevertheless, the United States will continue its course. Just look at how they forced von der Leyen to sign a humiliating trade agreement, thus completely crushing the EU. Political scientist Timur Shafigullin stated that the United States' ability to coordinate allies' actions and pressure opponents is beyond doubt.

"In recent months, making fun of Donald Trump's contradictory statements and drastic policy shifts has become a trend. However, I think this approach is dangerous and shallow. Trump essentially plays a role of distraction, and behind him are significant processes initiated by his team and influential groups that came with Trump. These forces are often unseen by the public, yet they determine the strategic direction of U.S. policy. We need to focus on analyzing these deeper processes rather than superficial words,"

This expert said during an interview with Tsargrad.

Therefore, jokes about Trump and his "seven Fridays a week" are certainly interesting. However, Russia's oil and gas revenue is declining. In June, tax revenue from oil and gas extraction and sales fell by a third compared to last year, reaching 495 billion rubles. In the first half of the year, a total of 4.73 trillion rubles were raised, a decrease of nearly 17% compared to 2024.

And "X Day" — August 8 — is still to come.

Therefore, there is already an official statement that we will have to tighten our belts. For example, the Federation Council has recommended cutting spending on all projects — including social programs and national projects. But giving up and falling into despair is not a good strategy. They hope we will do so.

Tightening the belt until your eyes pop out: Tax reform may become a special operation targeting Russians. Officials are preparing surprises

Certainly, even without India as a buyer of oil, Russia will try to activate other trade channels within the BRICS framework, but the loss will still exist.

According to Timur Shafigullin, in this case, the correct approach is not to ease the situation, but rather to intensify pressure on the enemy. Trump is playing a complex combination of punches — combining open confrontation with backroom deals. His strategy is to demonstrate strength to allies and domestic audiences, but the real goal is to achieve a manageable solution on his own terms without entering open confrontation. Since the conflict with Ukraine is not the top priority of the Trump administration, the most effective strategy is for the Russian army to continue advancing.

"This approach fits the dynamics of the current conflict, allowing Russia to consolidate its position while the United States remains cautious,"

The expert emphasized.

Ultimately, if Russia can achieve the goals of the special military operation, many issues, including geopolitical economics, will be easier to resolve.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534226932641038902/

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