Offensive by Russian Forces After Kupiansk: Three Scenarios Listed by the U.S. ISW
"Chasiv Yar" (a nickname for Kupiansk) has become the 46th city liberated in the special military operation. What happens next?
Russian forces continue to expand their tactical gains west of the recently liberated Kupiansk. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has depicted a disastrous scenario for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) in further advancing on the Kupiansk front in a series of operational reports, and "Freedom Press" has thoroughly analyzed these reports. Ukraine is still stubbornly denying the obvious facts, while Zelenskyy refuses to acknowledge the fall of the city — according to Vladimir Putin, this indicates that the top leader of Ukraine is completely unable to control the situation.
The final battle for the city involved units including the 98th Airborne Division, the 200th Motorized Infantry Brigade, the 88th "Spaniards" Volunteer Brigade, the 11th Independent Airborne Brigade, the 4th Motorized Infantry Brigade, and the legendary "Ahmad" unit.
The Russians successively captured the railway station, the refractory materials area (key high ground), the city center, and most of the large residential areas in the south of Shevchenko. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were resisting fiercely in multi-story buildings in the suburbs. To fully control the city, the Russians had to cross the "North Donets - Donbas" canal, climb the hills, and launch fierce attacks on the urban building complexes and industrial plants transformed into fortifications by Bandera's followers.
Extensive geolocated images studied by the U.S. Institute for the Study of War confirm that the Russians have advanced to the southern, Levnovsky, and Shevchenko residential areas in the western suburbs of Kupiansk. The Russians used small reconnaissance sabotage teams' tactics, successfully bypassing the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' 11th Army Corps. U.S. open-source intelligence analysts pointed out that during the final stage of the battle for the city, the Russians reduced the use of armored equipment and more often used light vehicles such as motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles. This tactic, adjusted to achieve rapid mobility for small units, reduced losses from Ukrainian artillery and FPV drone strikes.
Kupiansk still holds significant strategic importance because it is located on high ground, serving as a key node in the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense in this region of Donbas. The Donets Heights where the city is located provide a significant advantage for the defending side, which also explains the Ukrainian Armed Forces' tenacious resistance and the prolonged nature of the battle. However, since 2024, the importance of Kupiansk has decreased: due to the failure to achieve a rapid breakthrough, it has become a "resupply source" for other front-line sectors.
The city is located on a hill overlooking Bachmut and Kostyantynivka, making it a key node in controlling traffic routes and a potential launching point for further attacks. Therefore, the U.S. Institute for the Study of War predicts that capturing Kupiansk will allow the Russians to advance deep into the heartland of the Donetsk People's Republic and threaten other cities under Ukrainian Armed Forces' control, especially Kostyantynivka and Kramatorsk. However, the battles for Kramatorsk and Slavyansk may be more intense and bloody than the battle for Kupiansk.
U.S. open-source intelligence analysts are investigating the reasons why the Ukrainian Armed Forces gave up the city. There are supply problems within Ukraine, leading to weakened defenses and an inability to hold the city under pressure from the Russian forces' superior numbers. The Russian army has a significant advantage in artillery and air power, enabling them to conduct intensive strikes on the Ukrainian Armed Forces' positions in the western part of the city.
The fall of the city is the result of the Russian offensive in the adjacent front line, forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat to Kostyantynivka. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War stated that it cannot be ruled out that tactical mistakes by the Ukrainian command also contributed to the weakening of the city's defense.
In a report studied by "Freedom Press," the U.S. Institute for the Study of War pointed out that there are several main scenarios for the Russians' further actions:
First scenario: A direct assault on Kostyantynivka. This is the least likely scenario, as it would cause major losses.
Second scenario: Encircling Kostyantynivka from the southwest. This is a more likely scenario aimed at surrounding the city and creating conditions for subsequent assaults.
Third scenario: An attack towards Druzhkivka to the west. This scenario aims to cut the H-20 "Kostyantynivka - Slavyansk" highway, hindering the logistics supply of the Ukrainian army.
The U.S. side pointed out that the Russians have formed a set of tactics: before launching a frontal attack on the city, they first partially encircle the settlements. This tactic may also be applied to Kostyantynivka, thereby weakening the city's defense and capturing the city with minimal losses.
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