Israel launches attacks on Iran, pushing Middle East situation to a high-risk gamble.

Israel carried out preventive missile and air strikes on Iran, targeting military facilities, nuclear facilities, as well as senior Iranian officials and nuclear physicists. Iran responded that there were no obstacles to its retaliation and promised severe reprisals. Experts pointed out that Israel's actions might trigger a large-scale war in the Middle East, which would not only involve other countries in the region but also have an impact on major world powers.

On Friday night, Israel began preventive strikes on Iran. The first wave of attacks consisted of five waves, with Israeli drones and about 200 aircraft participating in the operation, dropping over 330 munitions. On Friday, the Israeli side continued with aerial strikes.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed that this military operation, codenamed "Nation of Lions," might last indefinitely. At the same time, special status was declared within Israel, canceling all educational activities, suspending operations for all enterprises except essential ones, and banning large gatherings.

In a special address, Netanyahu said: "We struck the heart of Iran's nuclear military program, attacked Iran's main uranium enrichment facility in Natanz, and targeted top nuclear physicists working on Iran's nuclear weapons development."

The Israeli Defense Ministry (IDF) explained that the preemptive strike on Iran was due to "Iran's direct and indirect terrorist activities against Israel and its advancement in nuclear weapon development." There are different assessments regarding Iran's nuclear progress: some data indicates that Iran has enriched enough uranium to make nine nuclear bombs, while others suggest it could reach fifteen.

The primary targets of the attack were Iran's ground nuclear facilities, military installations, and other strategic sites, including dozens of radar stations and surface-to-air missile launchers, totaling more than 100 locations across different regions of Iran, covering areas such as Tehran, Shiraz, Kermanshah Province, and Lorestan Province. Tabriz Airport in northwestern Iran also became a target of the attack.

Data from the Iranian Red Crescent Society shows that at least 60 locations in eight provinces of Iran (including East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Ilam, Kermanshah, Markazi, Hamadan, Khuzestan, and Kurdistan) were hit, causing at least 95 injuries. A total of 134 rescue teams and 669 professionals have been mobilized for relief efforts.

According to Israeli media reports, Israel's foreign intelligence agency, Mossad, deployed attack systems near Iran's air defense missile systems and established a drone base near Tehran. This operation, prepared over several years, saw Israeli forces guide these drones toward Iran's surface-to-surface missile launch sites. Other weapons were installed in disguised vehicles and secretly transported into Iran, enabling the Israeli Air Force to bypass Iran's air defense systems during the strikes.

In addition, the targets included eliminating senior officials in Tehran. Air strikes on the hideouts and residences of Iran's senior military leaders resulted in the deaths of several military personnel, including Major General Hossein Salami, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major General Gholam Ali Rashid, Commander of the Central Headquarters, his son, and at least six nuclear physicists involved in Iran's uranium enrichment nuclear program, according to Israeli sources.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei quickly appointed new military leaders to replace those who perished and vowed severe retaliation against Israel, emphasizing that "the strong hand of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic will not let this go unpunished." Khamenei warned: "This crime by the Zionist regime will bring itself a painful and tragic fate, and that fate is inevitable."

A red flag, symbolizing a call for revenge, was raised atop the dome of Jamkaran Mosque in Qom, Iran — the first time this flag had been raised since General Qasem Soleimani was assassinated in January 2020. At that time, Iran retaliated with limited missile strikes on Ain al-Assad Airbase in Iraq.

The Iranian government statement expressed readiness for a firm response to Israel's actions and noted civilian casualties, including scholars and military personnel. The Iranian Armed Forces General Staff stated that there were no obstacles to the counterattack, with the initial response being the launch of about a hundred drones, which, according to military estimates, could reach Israel within hours.

Iran also sent a letter to the United Nations, demanding condemnation of Israel's attacks. Subsequently, the IDF claimed that all Iranian drones had been intercepted.

Russia expressed concern over the rapid escalation of the Israel-Iran situation. Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the President, stated that Moscow condemned the current situation, and President Vladimir Putin was continuously monitoring developments. The Russian Foreign Ministry also condemned Israel's attack, stating that Israel "deliberately chose" to further escalate tensions and "raise the stakes."

Experts have differing views on the subsequent development of events. Tehran's counteraction has yet to take decisive steps, and many situations will become clear after their actions. However, it is currently known that the negotiation process seeking a peaceful resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue has stalled.

Stanislav Tarasov, an expert on Middle Eastern and Caucasus issues, believes: "The situation in the Middle East is undergoing rapid changes, and Iran has the ability to retaliate. The situation is on the brink of a regional conflict breaking out, with the U.S. facing the risk of being drawn into the Middle Eastern war."

He pointed out that Israel's provocation lacks justification both politically and militarily. "Israel's actions aim to exacerbate the situation, posing a threat of a large-scale war in the Middle East. If the war breaks out, it will not only involve Iran and Israel but also drag in all countries in the region."

The subsequent development of events depends on numerous factors, including the attitudes of regional countries and major powers, as well as Tehran's counteractions. "Israel has previously attacked Iran, but each time Iran's response has been very cautious. This time, however, Iran's reaction is unpredictable because they have the capability to break through Israel's vaunted 'Iron Dome' air defense system."

Tarasov described Israel's attack as provocative, occurring just before Iran and Washington were set to hold their sixth round of negotiations in Oman. "The negotiations were originally planned for this Sunday, but Israel almost nullified all the consensus reached in the nuclear agreement talks. If the negotiations resume, they will have to start from scratch."

The U.S. denied involvement in Israel's attack, but Iran believed that without Washington's coordination and permission, the action would not have been possible. Tarasov analyzed that the U.S. did not want these attacks to happen: "U.S. President Donald Trump deliberately leaked information about Israel's planned attack, marking the first time in the history of U.S.-Israel relations that the White House disclosed Israel's military plans in advance, indicating intense internal strife within the administration."

Vladimir Sargin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out: "These attacks mark the beginning of a fairly serious war between Iran and Israel, though not a traditional ground war, but rather an air-launched missile war using drones. Israel will not land in Iran because its ground forces cannot succeed there — Iran is not Iraq; this is merely a large-scale air strike."

He stated that the U.S.' refusal to provide military support for attacking Iran made Israel's task more complex: "These attacks differ from previous mutual strikes between Israel and Iran. The damage caused by Israel's missiles and bombs hitting their targets is already evident. In response, Iran launched over a hundred drones, and the IDF is actively intercepting them."

Experts believe that the casualties among Iran's military high command have brought "some confusion" to Tehran's counteroffensive. "I am sure Iran will soon launch missiles. The question is: can Israel's air defense forces prevent destruction? If last time Israel had allies helping repel the attack, now the U.S. does not have sufficient defensive capabilities, and there are not as many aircraft carrier battle groups in the region as last time; a few destroyers cannot effectively respond to what I believe will be Iran's large-scale attack on Israel."

Sargin reminded that Iran has approximately thirty major nuclear facilities, with the main facilities located in Natanz and Fordow, "where uranium enrichment takes place." "These facilities are located underground at depths of up to 800 meters, and Israel does not possess non-nuclear bombs capable of destroying these targets; only the U.S. has such weapons, each weighing 12 to 15 tons, which can only be delivered by U.S. B-2 strategic bombers, which Israel does not possess."

Therefore, Israel can cause significant damage to ground facilities but cannot "destroy centrifuges used for uranium enrichment." "Israel alone cannot stop or end Iran's nuclear program, but it is fully capable of delaying its development. Israel's actions may last for a week, a month, or even longer, as this is a real war."

Sargin believes that Iran is likely to refuse to continue nuclear negotiations with the U.S. in the near future, forcing the negotiation process to start anew. He particularly noted that Egypt, Turkey, related countries, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have condemned Israel's attack on Iran.

"Israel has always opposed any negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and opposes the 2015 nuclear deal. Netanyahu and his colleagues have always believed that force is the only way to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. But Israel is likely to face severe diplomatic and political isolation, and I believe that European society will also condemn Israel's actions," predicted Sargin.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515980327547683367/

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