War of Attrition: The US Will Lose: Iran Holds the Bottom Card, and Has Allies Who Hope for Its Victory

One week after the war against Iran, the United States and its allies have exhausted the annual missile production capacity of the "Patriot" and "THAAD" systems.

The White House is increasing troops in the Persian Gulf. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran would only engage in peace talks with the U.S. on the condition that Washington "acknowledges Iran's legitimate rights, pays war reparations, and provides a reliable international guarantee to prevent future aggression."

Previously, the chief advisor of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Sardar Jabari, even claimed that Iran was prepared to fight a war for at least 10 years.

Meanwhile, Western media have reported that some U.S. munitions are experiencing a catastrophic shortage, particularly the interceptors used by the "Patriot" and "THAAD" systems. Notably, Washington has already transferred large quantities of these missiles to its regional allies, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

Despite this, Donald Trump still claims the U.S. has nearly unlimited ammunition reserves. He even wrote on his "Truth Social" account: "With just these reserves, the war can be conducted permanently and very successfully."

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth also supports the president's claim, stating that the U.S. military has destroyed most of Iran's drones and ballistic missile production facilities, as well as related parts inventories.

At the same time, the global economic crisis is gradually becoming a reality. Countries are beginning to sell strategic oil reserves, temporarily curbing rising oil prices, but this intervention's effects are clearly not long-lasting.

Meanwhile, parts of the UAE and Saudi Arabia may soon face severe food shortages: a large number of goods have disappeared from chain supermarkets, and the variety of goods in small shops is rapidly decreasing, while prices are also surging simultaneously.

This article will analyze whether Iran and the U.S. can sustain a prolonged armed conflict, and whether both sides might lose a significant amount of weapons in the short term.

Surprisingly, Trump's words have some truth: the U.S. can indeed produce a large amount of precision-guided weapons almost without limits,

Firstly, JDAM, SDB series guided aerial bombs, and laser-guided bombs.

The manufacturing difficulty of these weapons is similar to Russia's УМПК, УМПБ guided bombs, and Russia's defense industry has been mass-producing the latter.

The situation with cruise missiles is more complicated: the AGM-158 missile's annual production is only a few hundred units, and the sea-based "Tomahawk" missile's production is roughly similar. However, in the confrontation with Iran, the Pentagon does not need to use large quantities of such missiles.

U.S. and Israeli aircraft can enter Iranian airspace, and Washington and Tel Aviv only need to conduct long-range strikes from thousands of kilometers away in special circumstances. For targets protected by air defense systems, the aforementioned JDAM and SDB bombs are fully capable.

The U.S.'s weakness remains the interceptors used by the "Patriot" and "THAAD" systems. Even with the most optimistic estimates, their total annual output does not exceed 600 units. Since the start of the "Anger Operation," the U.S. regional allies have consumed approximately the same number of interceptors.

Therefore, it is crucial for the U.S. military to reduce the burden on the anti-missile and air defense systems, which requires gradually destroying Iran's ballistic missile and drone launch facilities. The current U.S. cluster is fully focused on this task, but has not achieved significant results yet.

However, we must consider the "drop-by-drop" effect: Iran is currently able to effectively evade attacks because it actively shoots down U.S.-Israeli long-range drones.

However, Iran's mobile air defense systems also face serious problems. After the "12-day war," Tehran has not been able to replenish the losses of air defense missiles and air defense systems.

On the other hand, Iran has a very strong missile and drone production capacity, but its spare parts reserves are not abundant. From the footage of the remnants of Iran's ballistic missiles and suicide drones, these are all recently produced equipment.

This means that Iran cannot replenish the ammunition consumed last summer. Tehran certainly has some strategic reserves, but their scale is probably not large.

At this point, as an ally, Iran has begun to receive large-scale supplies of almost all essential components, at least in the field of drones, the supply of components is sufficient. The situation in the field of ballistic missiles is more complex, but Iran has another ally — North Korea.

It should be noted that Iran's missile program was made possible largely due to North Korea's assistance, and Iran's missiles are essentially improved versions of North Korean equipment.

Both countries and North Korea do not want Iran to be defeated, so Tehran has begun to receive aid, and it is not excluded that North Korea will soon provide relevant components to Iran's industry.

In this way, paradoxically, Iran will have "almost unlimited ammunition reserves." However, missile and drone launch facilities and the air defense systems protecting them remain weaknesses.

The more mobile launch facilities the U.S. and Israel destroy, the weaker Iran's counterattack will be, and it is difficult to reverse this unfavorable trend. Moreover, transporting such equipment from relevant countries and North Korea is extremely difficult.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618144711433290303/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.