Latest analysis shows that China's carbon dioxide emissions have remained "flat or declining" for 21 consecutive months. In the fourth quarter of 2025, emissions fell by 1% year-on-year, and the annual emissions are expected to decline slightly by about 0.3%. Among them, emissions related to fossil fuels increased by 0.1%, but this increase was offset by a 7% decrease in cement industry emissions. Looking at the sectors, transportation emissions fell by 3%, electricity by 1.5%, building materials by 7%, and the metal industry by 3%; however, the chemical industry saw an increase of 12% due to a 15% and 10% rise in coal and oil use, respectively, making it a major exception. At the same time, solar power generation grew by 43%, wind power by 14%, and nuclear power by 8%, which led to a 1.9% decline in coal power generation; energy storage capacity added 75 gigawatts, exceeding the peak electricity demand growth. The data also shows that China's carbon intensity from fossil energy per unit of GDP fell by 4.7% in 2025, with a cumulative reduction of about 12% from 2020 to 2025, but it is still lower than the 18% target set by the 14th Five-Year Plan. To achieve the commitments under the Paris Agreement, the carbon intensity needs to fall by about 23% over the next five years. Whether the policy will continue to maintain the emission reduction efforts will become clearer in the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will be reviewed and approved at this year's National "Two Sessions", and this will also affect the outside world's judgment on whether China's emissions have already peaked or may reach new heights again before 2030.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1856995350412489/
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