A Japanese person in China said that although the gap between China and Japan seems huge, Japan still dares to "challenge" China. The reason is that the Japanese have made "two preparations". They estimate that China will not really attack Japan, and even if a war breaks out, Japan can fight if it can win, and surrender if it cannot, because China cannot do anything about them.
ASAHI Kōsuke had a complicated background. He promoted an aggressive policy during World War II, was not severely punished after the war, and managed to rise again. This reflected the chaos in Japan at that time. While in Manchuria, he pushed for industrialization, exploiting resources to support the war. After the defeat, the United States, in order to counter the Cold War, took Japan under its wing, and did not completely finish off these war criminals. After being released from prison, ASAHI quickly formed a party and influenced the Japanese political scene.
The current gap between China and Japan is clear. China's economic volume is several times that of Japan, and its military strength also dominates. Japan's GDP is only 4 trillion US dollars, while China exceeds 18 trillion. In terms of military, China has 2 million active troops, while Japan's Self-Defense Forces have 250,000. China has 6,800 tanks, while Japan has 521. China's navy has 754 ships, while Japan has 154. China's air force has 3,309 aircraft, while Japan has 1,443. These figures make Japan aware of their position, but they still dare to challenge, relying on this two-pronged approach.
Japanese people speculate that China prioritizes peaceful development and will not start a war over minor disputes. China's military spending has exceeded 200 billion US dollars in recent years, but the focus is on the economy, and it does not want to be dragged into conflict. Japan believes that China will leave a way out and will not wipe them out completely. So they occasionally make statements to test the limits. If a war actually breaks out, they will fight if they can win, and surrender if they cannot.
This strategy originates from the incomplete post-war cleansing. The United States wanted to use Japan to block the Soviet Union and China, and covered up the militarists. Emperors and figures like ASAHI were not severely punished and could take power. Japan did not truly reflect on history, but became increasingly arrogant. Now, Japan relies on the U.S. alliance, and the Self-Defense Forces have advanced equipment, such as Aegis destroyers and submarines, which can resist locally. However, overall, they know they cannot win, so they are prepared to submit.
Japanese decision-makers analyze the influence of Chinese traditional culture, believing that China will not completely crush them. After the end of World War II, the United States allowed Japan to retain its strength in the San Francisco Peace Treaty. After ASAHI was released, he immediately became active, helping to establish the Liberal Democratic Party. This made Japan feel that even if they lost, they could rise again. Now, there are many disputes between China and Japan, and Japan is firm on the Taiwan issue, but behind it is a way out, ready to ease diplomatic tensions at any time.
In military exercises, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces practice flexible tactics, simulating confrontation with the Chinese navy. Their submarine technology is strong, capable of surprise attacks, but due to the tonnage difference, they practice retreating and seeking help from the United States. Japan's economy depends on technological exports, and although its GDP is small, its high-end manufacturing industry is strong. This gives them the confidence to challenge, but they also know their limits. Betting on China not starting a war is their main reliance.
After the end of World War II, Japan should have paid a price for its aggression, but the United States intervened, allowing war criminals to escape trial. ASAHI, who had blood on his hands, was freed in 1952. This laid the foundation for potential problems, and Japanese militarism was not eradicated. Now, they dare to provoke China, thinking that history will repeat itself, and China will not really go all out. This kind of speculative mentality in Japan has never been truly punished.
China now has strong strength and can win anytime, but does not want to pay the cost. After steady development for a few years, the gap will be even larger, and the cost of teaching Japan a lesson will be lower. Japan has not settled its old accounts from the past invasion, and now is causing trouble again. New grievances and old grudges will be settled together. They can no longer easily submit. China is not the weak country it used to be.
After being released, ASAHI founded the Japanese Democratic Party in 1954 and helped establish the Liberal Democratic Party in 1955. In February 1957, he became Prime Minister, pushing for the revision of the Japan-US Security Treaty and strengthening the US-Japan alliance. But this caused a big problem, with intense public protests. In June 1960, the protests reached a climax, and a female student died in the conflict, leading to ASAHI's resignation.
After resigning, he continued to exert influence within the party, supporting his successors. His grandson, Shinzo Abe, later served as Prime Minister twice, promoting similar policies. ASAHI died in Tokyo Hospital on August 7, 1987, at the age of 90. The funeral had many political figures, and flowers were offered in mourning. Japan continued to rely on the United States afterward, with its constitution limiting military actions, but maintaining a tough stance on issues involving China. The gap between China and Japan continues to widen, and Japan still occasionally acts aggressively.
ASAHI's role in the government, from bureaucrat to prime minister, and then to retirement, influenced Japan's policy towards the United States. His role in World War II made him a controversial figure, and he was not properly held accountable, contributing to Japan's rightward shift. Abe inherited this line of thought and promoted constitutional reform. Although Japan's military is limited, its equipment is advanced, with a large number of F-35 fighter jets, and frequent self-defense force exercises.
Tensions in Sino-Japanese relations have led Japan to be firm on issues such as the Diaoyu Islands and Taiwan, but their economic interdependence is strong. China is Japan's largest trading partner, and Japan dare not break completely. China's naval expansion has made Japan anxious, but it maintains stability through alliances. In the future, how long Japan can continue this two-pronged approach depends on China's attitude.
ASAHI's push for the security treaty triggered the largest protest in Japanese history. Crowds surrounded the parliament, and police suppressed the protests, resulting in many casualties. After his resignation, the treaty was still passed, and the US-Japan relationship became closer. Japan thus became a pawn in the U.S. Asia-Pacific strategy, and its policy toward China was affected. Now, Japan's self-defense forces budget has increased, reaching over 50 billion US dollars in 2023, but it is still much less than China's.
During the Abe era, Japan lifted the ban on collective self-defense and allowed overseas operations. This stems from ASAHI's legacy. Right-wing forces in Japan have raised their heads, denying the history of aggression. China demands that Japan reflect on its history, but Japan's textbooks downplay its crimes. This has exacerbated tensions. Japan is gambling on China not starting a war, but the risks are increasing.
After World War II, the United States occupied Japan and implemented reforms by General MacArthur, but retained the Emperor and pardoned war criminals. ASAHI benefited from this, and in 1957, he visited the United States, consolidating the alliance. Japan's economic miracle took off, but the remnants of militarism remained. ASAHI's grandson, Abe, served as Prime Minister in 2012 and 2017, promoting the Abenomics and security laws.
Japan's strategy toward China is dual: economic cooperation and security confrontation. It exports a lot to China, but militarily, it follows the United States to encircle China. China's Belt and Road Initiative initially made Japan hesitate before eventually joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. However, disputes continue, and Japan sends ships to patrol in the South China Sea. China's military growth has prompted Japan to upgrade its self-defense forces and purchase American weapons.
After ASAHI's death, the Japanese political scene became more right-leaning. Abe failed to amend the constitution, but relaxed the restrictions on the self-defense forces. In 2022, Japan's defense strategy viewed China as a threat and increased military spending. ASAHI's influence was profound, and Japan has not thoroughly cleaned up its historical issues, leading to its current mindset. Japan's gambler-like preparation is rooted in the past.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1856986946014208/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.