Reference News Network, January 6 report - The Saudi Arabian daily newspaper "Al-Arabiyah" website published an article titled "Uncertainty Will Deeply Influence 2026 and Beyond" on December 16, 2025. The author is Andrew Hammond, a research fellow at the Center for International Affairs, Diplomacy, and Major Strategy at the London School of Economics and Political Science in the UK. The following are selected excerpts from the article:
World affairs are rarely predictable. However, in recent years, "black swan" events have become increasingly frequent, exceeding normal expectations. This turbulent, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous situation contains both opportunities and risks.
Looking ahead to the coming year, there are two major macro-level uncertainties. First, will the geopolitical situation improve or deteriorate? The second key uncertainty is whether the momentum of international economic expansion, driven by the booming development of artificial intelligence, can be sustained.
Four possible scenarios may emerge: sustained economic growth with a highly challenging geopolitical environment (a resilient world); easing geopolitical tensions with stronger economic growth (peace and prosperity); a weak global economy with easing geopolitical tensions (a stagnant world); persistent high geopolitical tension with ongoing global economic anxiety (an era of turbulence).
In fact, the world in 2026 and beyond will exhibit characteristics of all these scenarios. They are all reasonable and provide guidance for understanding the complexity of the future.
However, the likelihood of two of these scenarios is significantly higher than others. This is because the geopolitical environment in the coming years is likely to be at least as challenging as today, if not more so. The second global uncertainty is even harder to predict. That is, whether the global economy can continue to grow under the current surge in artificial intelligence.
This means that the two most likely scenarios are: a resilient world and an era of turbulence.
The resilient world model often attracts the attention of international policymakers. For example, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, said: "A more balanced and resilient world economy is within reach. We must take action to ensure this goal... All countries must double their efforts to address their own issues."
Compared to the era of turbulence, the scenario of a resilient world is more optimistic. However, during a fragile expansion period facing multiple shocks, global growth may still be very uneven, with emerging market powers such as India continuing to lead growth.
Although the global GDP growth rate in the 2020s was the weakest since the 1960s, the booming development of artificial intelligence has somewhat masked this fact. For example, it is estimated that about 40% of U.S. GDP growth is related to spending on artificial intelligence, and an increasing number of commentators point out that this is causing an ever-growing bubble.
In terms of geopolitics, several regional wars, including Ukraine, are likely to continue. Regions such as the Middle East will still face many vulnerabilities.
The envisioned era of global turbulence in the 2020s may be triggered by worsening geopolitical situations and a bleak global economic outlook. This could partly be due to a severe collapse in the technology-driven economy, which could harm the United States far more than the 2008 financial crisis.
Given the growing reliance of the U.S. economy on artificial intelligence investments, the U.S. is extremely vulnerable to such a collapse. In fact, some top scholars, such as Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu, believe that this could further weaken U.S. power, and the declining resilience of key U.S. institutions would exacerbate this trend. (Translated by Li Sha)
Original source: toutiao.com/article/7592176070812533289/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author themselves.