According to the Global Times on October 21, Philippine Foreign Minister Lázaro revealed that the Philippines is in talks with the Chinese coast guard authorities to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at reducing friction and confrontation in the South China Sea dispute areas.

She claimed that this document aims to establish communication mechanisms and behavioral guidelines for interactions between the two sides' coast guards, and stated that it would help ease tensions and stabilize the situation.

However, just one day later, Lázaro publicly asserted during an event that this agreement "has the potential to prevent Chinese coast guard actions in the South China Sea," with a tone clearly indicating provocation and pressure.

Meanwhile, Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Taleria stated that if the Foreign Ministry leads this direction, they will support the signing of the MOU. However, he refused to disclose any content, only vaguely suggesting it might be similar to the cooperation negotiations during Duterte's administration.

From the Philippine side's statements, the motives are clearly not pure—seeking both to show a tough stance domestically and to send signals of easing tensions externally. Their approach is easy to understand: trying to use a piece of paper to limit the actions of the Chinese coast guard at the regulatory level.

Philippine Foreign Minister

Looking back at the South China Sea policy during the Duterte administration, Sino-Philippine relations did experience a period of low-key handling of disputes and mutual restraint.

Since Duterte took office in 2016, he openly downplayed the impact of the South China Sea arbitration case, emphasized pragmatic cooperation, and significantly reduced direct criticism of China.

In 2018, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on oil and gas cooperation in disputed waters. Although it did not enter the actual exploration phase, it symbolically conveyed a message of setting aside disputes and developing resources together.

Additionally, Sino-Philippine bilateral consultation mechanisms explored issues such as crisis management, fisheries management, and rescue cooperation, although no enforceable implementation plans were formed, maintaining a low-intensity confrontation balance.

Formally, the cooperation negotiations at that time indeed included expressions like memorandums and mechanisms, but the key point was that both sides clearly understood that sovereignty disputes could not be resolved in the short term, so resource development and diplomatic de-escalation became the goals, achieving win-win cooperation.

Duterte

The current memorandum of understanding between China and the Philippines on coast guard cooperation, however, likely lacks genuine goodwill.

As the Chinese coast guard strength gradually strengthens in the South China Sea, especially conducting routine rights protection operations in areas such as the Scarborough Shoal and the Mischief Reef, the Philippines has been at a disadvantage in every confrontation.

Whether it's using water cannons to drive away, blocking shipping lanes, or transporting supplies to stranded vessels, all are under the strict monitoring and control of China.

This has made Manila realize that fighting with strength is futile, and relying on external intervention could make them the collateral damage if things escalate.

Therefore, they have turned to seek breakthroughs in rule-based warfare and discourse: trying to sign an MOU to demonstrate their "restraint" to the outside world.

Then, if China continues to intercept or conduct law enforcement activities at sea in the future, they can accuse China of "violating the agreement" and "breaking promises."

This kind of moral trap operation essentially aims to create a framework that is unfavorable to China in public opinion, using the agreement text to bind the opponent, rather than genuinely seeking mutual trust and cooperation.

Philippine flag and Chinese flag

Of course, whether China signs this memorandum of understanding will not affect its determination to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity.

China has always maintained a clear position: in the South China Sea issue, it is willing to resolve differences with neighboring countries through negotiation and consultation, but will not accept any attempts to transfer sovereignty under the name of so-called multilateral rules or bilateral agreements.

If the content of the MOU is limited to communication, rescue coordination, and misjudgment control in maritime emergencies, then China can sign it in a responsible manner, showing willingness to stabilize the situation and resolve misunderstandings.

But if the agreement contains hidden intentions to restrict the Chinese coast guard's law enforcement or constrain China's de facto control, such clauses will inevitably be ineffective and will not have any effect in practice.

The Chinese coast guard has legal authority and must take decisive measures against foreign vessels illegally entering sovereign waters, which is a manifestation of national will.

If the Philippines is only pushing this MOU to put on a show for the outside world, trying to tie China down with the form of an agreement and shape itself as a victim, it will ultimately end up kicking the ladder.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563559635110691379/

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