Although Zandanshatar was expected to lose his position, President Khurelsukh temporarily saved him. However, saving him for now does not guarantee his future. The final outcome is likely that even the president cannot make the decision, and commitments to China and Russia may be hard to keep.

Khurelsukh

After remaining silent for 72 hours, Mongolian President Khurelsukh issued a veto, temporarily saving the position of Prime Minister Zandanshatar who had only been in office for four months. Just three days ago, the Mongolian State Great Khural held a full session and voted to dismiss Zandanshatar, adding more turbulence to Mongolia's political struggle.

The presidential office pointed out that there were errors in the way the parliamentary vote was conducted, and the method of calculating the number of attendees violated the constitution and the principle of rule of law. According to Mongolian law, the president can decide on the resolution, but if after discussion, two-thirds of the attending and voting members do not accept the veto, the original resolution will remain valid.

This means that although Khurelsukh currently managed to save Zandanshatar against the opposition, it is only temporary. If the parliament continues to refuse to budge, the president will have no choice. Khurelsukh's veto decision contains a shrewd political calculation. On one hand, Zandanshatar was once the president's chief of staff, and the two are closely related. Protecting a political ally has become an important consideration for the president.

Zandanshatar

Looking deeper, this struggle reflects the power competition between the president and the parliament in Mongolia. Since the implementation of the current constitution in 1992, the distribution of power between the president and the prime minister has not been clearly defined. Former Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene proposed changing the semi-presidential system into a parliamentary system to weaken the president's power.

After Zandanshatar took office, he tried to continue the pragmatic foreign policy, but the political turmoil caused by the constitutional crisis could not be reversed. Through this veto, the president is essentially maintaining his own power range. More importantly, keeping Zandanshatar not only benefits Mongolia's long-term development, but also retains a key driver for the China-Russia-Mongolia cooperation projects.

Former Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene with U.S. former Vice President Harris

After taking office, Zandanshatar quickly adjusted Mongolia's foreign direction. His predecessor government implemented the "Third Neighbor" strategy, attempting to balance Chinese and Russian influence, even leading to the cancellation of a coal contract with China. Zandanshatar changed this policy and made deepening cooperation with China his top priority.

In this regard, his views align with those of President Khurelsukh. Last month, Khurelsukh attended the September 3rd military parade in China and held a trilateral meeting with the heads of state of China and Russia, officially finalizing the China-Russia-Mongolia gas pipeline project, which Zandanshatar strongly supported and executed.

There are still a few extremist forces in Mongolia that hold anti-China positions. Their activities go against the mainstream public opinion and the overall trend of bilateral cooperation. These forces advocate strengthening ties with Western countries, trying to push the "Third Neighbor" strategy to reduce dependence on China and Russia. Zandanshatar's pro-China approach may have touched the interests of these forces, leading to backlash and his dismissal by the parliament.

China-Russia-Mongolia Gas Pipeline Cooperation Project

Khurelsukh is well aware that if Zandanshatar, who is pushing for China-Russia cooperation, is truly removed this time, pro-Western forces may seize the opportunity to take power. Vetoing the resolution is equivalent to drawing a red line for Western forces: Mongolia's political situation is not something outsiders can interfere with. Of course, if Zandanshatar really steps down, no one can guarantee what stance the next prime minister will take, and whether the China-Russia-Mongolia cooperation can proceed smoothly remains uncertain.

For the general public, the essence of this political game is simple: Mongolia must choose sides between "relying on China and Russia for real money" and "relying on the West for strategic balance." The president's veto is just giving this choice some extra buffer time. But avoiding the first day of the month won't help when the fifteenth comes around, as the huge transit fees are more practical than any "strategic balance."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563540044787499572/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.