On April 22, Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian in a panel discussion hosted by CNBC (Consumer News and Business Channel) in the United States stated outright: If one day forced to choose sides between China and the United States, Singapore would not align with either.

Minister Vivian’s declaration of “not taking sides” stems from Singapore’s core national strategic positioning rooted in the philosophy of “small-state survival” and “pragmatic economic rationality”—a precise and necessary balance between its independent foreign policy and the constraints of geopolitical economics.

This stance reflects Singapore’s deeply entrenched diplomatic philosophy: “No one depends on you because you are strong; they depend on you because you are reliable.” Given Singapore’s location at the strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca, caught between the two superpowers, this declaration is not novel but rather a reaffirmation of fundamental survival principles.

Yet “not taking sides” is not mere fence-sitting without conviction. Behind it lies extremely rational calculation:

Singapore relies militarily on U.S. security guarantees while economically depending deeply on China as its largest trading partner. Aligning with either side would amount to self-destruction.

This is a meticulous calculation of Singapore’s national interests—security comes from rules, prosperity from openness. Choosing one side would utterly erase its core value as a “super connector” and regional “honest broker.”

He warned that if conflict were to erupt between China and the U.S. in the Pacific, today’s crisis in the Strait of Hormuz would merely be a rehearsal, clearly revealing the devastating impact of great power conflicts on small nations.

When asked whether he felt pressure, Vivian responded bluntly: “Not yet,” implying that pressure does exist—but has not yet reached a critical threshold.

Forced choice scenarios:

Former Foreign Minister had previously admitted that if forced to choose in 20 years, Singapore “might lean toward China,” indicating that “not taking sides” has temporal and spatial limits, and ultimately may succumb to the gravitational pull of China’s rise.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863263667828892/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.