Toutiao.com December 20 report, according to Kyodo News December 19, the Japanese government's working group on December 19 released the latest disaster forecast for a direct-under-the-capital earthquake, including a 7.3 magnitude earthquake, with the most severe situation potentially causing 18,000 deaths. According to the forecast, two-thirds of the victims would die due to fires. Due to the advancement of building seismic retrofitting and fire prevention measures in areas with dense wooden houses, the number of deaths has been reduced by 5,000 compared to the previous forecast in 2013 (23,000 people). The economic loss from factory damage and production cuts is estimated at 82.6 trillion yen (100 yen is approximately 4.53 yuan RMB - this site note), a reduction of about 13 trillion yen.
The report said that although some progress has been made in disaster prevention measures, it has not yet reached the goal of halving the number of deaths within 10 years as proposed in the basic plan of 2015. In the future, the government will revise the plan and take the Disaster Prevention Agency, which is scheduled to be established by the fiscal year 2026, as the command center, to strengthen measures aimed at reducing losses and maintaining the capital's core functions.
Disaster Prevention Minister Akama Jirō emphasized: "We will reflect (the new forecast) into the countermeasure plan to reduce personnel and property losses."
According to the forecast, the probability of a 7-magnitude direct-under-the-capital earthquake occurring within 30 years is about 70%. The earthquake that would have the greatest impact on the capital's core is one with an epicenter in the southern part of the city center. The number of deaths would be the highest if the earthquake occurs in winter evening with a wind speed of 8 meters per second. There will be casualties in one metropolis and four prefectures, with Tokyo having 8,000 people, more than 40% of the total. Up to 402,000 buildings could be completely destroyed or burned down, a reduction of about 210,000 compared to the previous forecast.
According to the forecast, the number of evacuees will gradually increase after the earthquake, and it is expected to reach 4.8 million people two weeks later. Based on past earthquakes, the working group has, for the first time, estimated the number of disaster-related deaths due to deteriorating health conditions during the evacuation process, which could range from 16,000 to 41,000 people.
Original text: toutiao.com/article/7585883070327276041/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.