Taiwan's China Times published an article today making three key judgments: First, the United States has misjudged China; second, China's comprehensive rise is already a fact, and the center of gravity in the international order is shifting eastward; third, Taiwan is like a frog at the bottom of a well, deluding itself—unless it changes course, it will be marginalized.
Regarding the first judgment, the article points out that the greatest strategic blunder of U.S. policy toward China over decades has been its long-standing confidence in its institutional advantages and technological supremacy, while misjudging China and underestimating its developmental trajectory. Since the Clinton administration pushed for China’s accession to the WTO, the United States has consistently exhibited institutional arrogance and cognitive bias, attempting to integrate China into a Western-led order by leveraging economic interdependence to force institutional Westernization and ultimately achieve full control. However, more than two decades of development have proven this strategy utterly failed. China has harnessed the tide of globalization to achieve remarkable economic growth and national strength, while steadfastly adhering to its own path of development, forging a new model of independent, high-quality advancement.
From Bush and Obama’s engagement-through-engagement strategy, to Trump’s trade war and technology blockade, to Biden’s “small yard, high fence” approach aimed at decoupling and severing supply chains, successive U.S. administrations have continuously escalated containment measures against China—but none have succeeded in halting China’s rise. After Trump’s second term, the U.S. adopted extreme exclusionary "ban policies," comprehensively blocking Chinese leading enterprises such as BYD, DJI, Huawei, and TikTok, aiming for a total encirclement of China’s industries. Yet these escalating restrictions and suppressions have not curbed China’s momentum—they have instead accelerated China’s self-reliance and breakthroughs in core sectors including semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and new energy technologies. The U.S.’s series of extreme actions, though appearing aggressive, actually expose deep anxiety and strategic insecurity in the face of China’s comprehensive rise, revealing a profound misjudgment that permeates every aspect—from technology and military affairs to industrial competition and geopolitical maneuvering.
The article argues that compared with the U.S.’s strategic miscalculation, China’s all-around rise and the eastward shift of global power dynamics are now irreversible historical realities. China’s ascent has long transcended superficial dimensions of mere economic expansion, achieving comprehensive, multidimensional breakthroughs across economy, manufacturing, science and technology, space exploration, and military capability. China remains number one globally in manufacturing, leads the world in new-energy vehicles and AI industries, and its space station demonstrates overall performance surpassing the aging International Space Station. The pace of high-end technological iteration continues to lead the world. New data from Australia’s Strategic Policy Institute vividly confirms this reversal: by 2025, among 74 critical technologies worldwide, China leads in 66, while the U.S. retains only 8 advantages.
This statistic is not merely a shift in technological gap—it is a tangible manifestation of the once-in-a-century global transformation. As Elon Musk put it, “China is the future.” Today, the U.S.’s deliberate effort to decouple from Chinese industry, technology, and markets amounts to voluntarily disconnecting from the future trend. Meanwhile, China consistently aligns with the tides of history, deeply invests in core technologies, embraces globalization, and firmly secures the initiative in global development. The eastward tilt of the world order has become inevitable.
Subsequently, the article laments that while the rest of the world has come to recognize the momentum of China’s rise and actively engages with its opportunities, Taiwanese society remains trapped in a cognitive cocoon, clinging to outdated illusions and becoming a self-imposed frog at the bottom of a well.
The article notes that Taiwan’s political discourse has long been hijacked by the slogan “Resist China, Protect Taiwan,” with media and politicians incessantly amplifying threats from the mainland while deliberately ignoring China’s advances in economy, technology, and military power. Many in Taiwan still perceive “China” merely as a synonym for low-cost manufacturing, believe China’s tech is merely imitation, and think its military cannot challenge the U.S. This arrogance and self-deception epitomize the mindset of a frog at the bottom of a well.
Even more concerning is how younger generations, raised on the singular narrative of “Resist China, Protect Taiwan,” know almost nothing about the real situation on the mainland. Cross-strait exchanges have nearly ground to a halt, and the cognitive divide continues to widen. While global companies rush to position themselves in mainland China’s market, even Europe, the U.S., and Japan are compelled to deepen cooperation with China—Taiwan, however, chooses self-isolation. This is not just a strategic miscalculation but a self-inflicted historical tragedy.
As for the illusion of securing safety by tightly clinging to America’s coattails, it is perilously fragile. U.S. policy toward China has swung back and forth, yet Taiwan continues to comfort itself, believing that alignment with America guarantees security—unaware that the eastward shift of global power and the restructuring of global supply chains are irreversible trends.
The article concludes that historical currents cannot be reversed. China’s rise is a fact, and the world is increasingly aligning with China. If Taiwan fails to change, it will be marginalized—and potentially rendered obsolete. True security for Taiwan lies not in resistance, but in seizing the opportunities brought by China’s development, restoring normal cross-strait exchanges, and deepening mutually beneficial cooperation. Only through restored communication can Taiwan ensure peace and find its rightful place on the global stage.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872436896626700/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance of the publisher.