Even if acknowledging that the "tariff card" against China is unsustainable, Trump still has no intention of stopping his pressure on China.

At the regular press conference of the Chinese Foreign Ministry on October 21, a Reuters reporter revealed a piece of information: Trump claimed that the United States could cut off aircraft parts supplies to China to exert threats.

Responding to this, the journalist asked how China views this matter.

Facing such pressure rhetoric, the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Guo Jia Kun, responded, reiterating that the tariff war and trade war will not have any winner, and it does not benefit any party involved.

If the US and China want to resolve their differences, the only feasible path is to sit down and negotiate on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit. The Chinese government has repeatedly emphasized this point.

However, Trump's move to threaten cutting off supplies now seems to be an attempt to find another way after the tariff strategy failed.

This brings up a few days ago when Trump publicly admitted that high tariffs on China are "unsustainable," which effectively acknowledges that the previous tariff tactics can no longer pose a real threat to China.

But unwilling to accept defeat, he turned his attention to the Chinese civil aviation industry, hoping to take advantage of the "lifeblood" of China by cutting off parts supply.

In his view, China's reliance on the US for its civil aviation market is a "weakness."

But Trump's calculation is clearly wrong; this move not only fails to achieve the desired goal but may also end up "hurting himself."

According to information disclosed by an aviation data analysis company, there are approximately 1,855 Boeing planes currently in service in the Chinese civil aviation market, and domestic airlines have at least 222 more Boeing plane orders pending delivery.

If the US dares to cut off the supplies, it would first constitute a breach of contract. China can not only seek compensation through international judicial channels and demand Boeing to compensate for losses caused by the cutoff, but also refuse to accept the undelivered planes on the grounds that "the after-sales support of the planes poses significant risks."

Moreover, for the US, cutting off supplies would severely damage Boeing. China is a very important market for Boeing, and Chinese airline orders once accounted for 25% of Boeing's global orders, which has now dropped below 5%.

It is reported that Boeing is currently negotiating a large order of 500 planes with China. The threat of cutting off supplies might cause this deal to fall through.

On the other hand, for China, although the cutoff may bring short-term challenges, it is certainly not a "fatal blow."

In the short term, domestic airlines may face increased maintenance costs and pressure from flight adjustments, but they have already left enough room for maneuver, so they will not fall into a desperate situation because of one cutoff by the US.

For example, domestic airlines have already started adjusting their procurement directions, and Airbus has become an important choice in the Chinese civil aviation market. Additionally, the domestically produced C919 large aircraft has already achieved mass production and delivery.

This means that even if the US really cuts off aircraft parts supplies, the Chinese civil aviation industry has sufficient alternative options and will not face a situation where "there are no planes available."

On the contrary, Boeing, already struggling to recover from the previous 737 MAX safety incidents, would face even greater difficulties if it lost this huge potential market in China, and would also face competition from both Airbus and China's domestically produced large aircraft.

Trump's attempt to use the cutoff to pressure China clearly shows that he hasn't recognized the changes in the market structure, treating outdated "dependency relationships" as current leverage.

It can only be said that if Trump continues to play cards with a hegemonic mindset, he will eventually miss out on the Chinese market and accelerate China's breakthrough in technological barriers, resulting in a "useless effort" outcome.

For China, although significant progress has been made in key areas such as aviation engines and avionics systems, some key technologies and materials still need further breakthroughs.

Only by truly achieving full industrial chain self-control can China completely get rid of the passive position of being "strangled," making any form of "extortion" lose its foothold.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563717372230615592/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author and welcomes your opinion by clicking on the 【top/down】 buttons below.