Reference News Network, July 5 report. According to the website of The Korea Times on July 2, a new think tank report states that South Korea's population may drop to 7.53 million in the next century, about 15% of the current population.
The report released by the Institute for Future Population of the Korean Peninsula on July 2 shows that even in the most optimistic scenario, South Korea's population is expected to decrease from the current 51.68 million to 15.73 million by 2125, less than one-third of the current population size.
The institute's forecast uses the internationally recognized cohort component method, estimating future population changes by analyzing the three main components of population dynamics: fertility rate, mortality rate, and migration. The report highlights the unusually rapid pace of South Korea's population decline.
This scenario assumes that South Korea's total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have) will follow the official prediction of the Korean Statistics Office until 2072. After that, it remains constant at three possible levels: 0.82 (low level), 1.08 (medium level), and 1.34 (high level). Last year, South Korea's total fertility rate was only 0.75, the lowest in the world.
In the moderate scenario, South Korea's population is expected to fall to 33.6 million by 2070, roughly equivalent to the combined population of the four largest cities in Seoul, Busan, Incheon, and Daegu.
The report says, "The real impact comes after that, as the rate of population decline accelerates. By 2100, South Korea's population will be less than half of the current level. In the low total fertility rate scenario, the population is expected to be 14.66 million; in the medium total fertility rate scenario, 17.87 million; and in the most optimistic scenario, 21.65 million."
Additionally, the report states that the proportion of the elderly population in South Korea will continue to rise from 20.3% this year to 40.1% by 2050, and reach 47.7% by 2072. This will make South Korea one of the countries with the most aged populations in the world.
This drastic demographic change is expected to lead to many problems. The most obvious ones are the growing shortage of labor and increasing welfare expenditures.
The report points out that even in the most optimistic scenario, by 2085, 100 working-age people will have to support 108 elderly people. (Translation/ Wang Qun)
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523484078146912809/
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