Reference News Network reported on June 20 that according to a report from Spain's "El Mundo" website on June 17, half of the global population breathed a sigh of relief as rice prices were becoming cheaper.
Rice moves the world. Half of the global population relies on this grain as a food source. For instance, in Southeast Asia and Africa, rice provides up to 60% of caloric intake. In Bangladesh, this figure even reaches 70%. Its versatility in cooking makes it an essential item on many tables. After years of continuous increase, rice prices have finally fallen. This is thanks to improved global supply, harvests in key countries such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam, and a reduction in trade restrictions that distorted the market.
For example, the benchmark Thai rice is currently priced at around $400 per ton, far below the high reached in 2023. "Rice international prices were unusually high. However, they have begun to decline in 2024," said economist Sherry Mustafa of the Markets and Trade Division of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. All types of rice price indices show that the price in March this year was at its lowest level since June 2022, but still higher than pre-pandemic levels. Several factors contributed to this price drop, but the most influential factor was: India, which controls 40% of the global rice market, lifted its export restrictions.
India is the world's largest rice exporter. Its exports once even exceeded the combined total of the next four major suppliers - Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the United States. No other country has such influence in the international market. Therefore, when the Modi government began to restrict rice exports in 2022 due to climate interference factors and adverse global conditions, the global market was hit hard, causing rice prices to soar. From September 2022 to mid-2024, India implemented various restriction measures. These included bans on exporting certain varieties of rice and imposing taxes on certain types of rice exports. India mainly exports two types of rice: one is long-grain, non-aromatic, non-parboiled rice known as "indica rice"; the other is Basmati fragrant rice. Additionally, it exports "broken rice": this type of rice breaks during the milling process but is an important component of international trade.
"India has lifted all restrictions except those on broken rice," explained Abdullah Mamun, an analyst at the International Food Policy Research Institute based in Washington. Even so, this has brought some relief. "Countries benefiting from falling rice prices are sub-Saharan African countries such as Senegal, Madagascar, Niger, and Nigeria. South Asian countries are also benefiting from this trend," Mamun said. As the most populous country in Africa, Nigeria has a high demand for parboiled rice. "Local production is insufficient to meet consumer demand, meaning more tons of rice need to be imported each year," noted a report by S&P Global. This heavy reliance on imports raises concerns about food security and economic stability. According to data from Nigeria SBM Intelligence, the price of a 50-kilogram bag of rice in Abuja, the capital of Nigeria, is 63.9 euros. Data from Bloomberg News shows that in a country where the minimum monthly wage is only 45.1 euros, rising rice prices mean that 2/3 of Nigerian households are going hungry.
"The recent fall in rice prices may bring some relief to African countries," Mustafa emphasized. "This could have positive impacts on food security, as rice is not only a key food source in terms of energy intake in many African countries, but also its proportion in residents' diets is increasing." In Africa, the improvement in purchasing power, urbanization, and the versatility of rice have boosted rice consumption. It should be noted that the decline in international prices does not always translate into a decrease in local consumer prices. "This depends on many other factors: exchange rates, transportation costs, tax policies, or the profit margins of intermediaries," Mustafa pointed out.
In the coming months, prices are not expected to rebound. Mamun noted that according to various forecasts, global rice production is expected to increase by 8 million tons to 544 million tons in the 2024/2025 crop year. Additionally, ending stocks are expected to be high: this year at 205 million tons, compared to last year's 199 million tons.
Favorable climatic conditions. "Harvesting activities are underway in India and Bangladesh; good weather in Indonesia has accelerated harvesting and planting; harvesting work is also progressing in Vietnam," Mamun said.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517948735314297382/
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