As expected! German Finance Minister Christian Lindner warned in a recent interview that German car manufacturers, if they continue to rely on diesel and gasoline vehicles and misjudge the trend of electrification, will be completely left behind by the leading advantage of Chinese electric vehicles.

To understand this matter, it's necessary to first mention the recent major context. Just a few days before Lindner gave the interview, the EU had just announced a comprehensive plan for the automotive industry.

This plan quietly changed the original 2035 target of achieving zero-emission new cars into a 90% reduction in emissions, with the remaining 10% emission gap being offset by low-carbon steel, synthetic fuels, and other means. In short, it's like giving long-term green lights to fuel-powered and hybrid vehicles.

This policy adjustment was widely supported by German automakers. Volkswagen said the plan is economically reasonable and in line with market reality; BMW also believed it acknowledged that internal combustion engine technology still has a future.

After all, the previous EU emission targets were too strict. If the original plan were to be followed, by 2025, companies would face fines exceeding 10 billion euros, which is real financial pressure.

However, Lindner decided to pour cold water at this time. On December 20th, when he was interviewed by the German newspaper "Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung", he clearly stated that don't think the policy relaxation means you can rest easy. The future of transportation is definitely electrified.

He also pointed out that if automakers misread this signal and continue to rely on diesel and gasoline engines for a long time, their future will only get harder.

This sounds reasonable, but soon after, he got angry over a procurement deal by the German railway company. At the beginning of December, Deutsche Bahn announced an order worth over 1 billion euros for more than 3,300 buses, mostly hybrid and electric models, mainly supplied by the local MAN company.

Because about 200 electric intercity buses selected foreign brands, Lindner openly expressed his frustration, saying he hoped that during procurement, there could be some "healthy patriotism" and consider German or European brands more.

This is somewhat confusing. On one hand, he urged automakers to accelerate the transition to electrification, and on the other hand, he didn't allow domestic companies to choose more cost-effective foreign electric products during procurement.

Didn't he forget that market competition is the best driver for corporate progress? Deutsche Bahn chose foreign brands because they were cheaper, which is the result of market choice.

In fact, Lindner's contradiction reflects the collective anxiety of the German automotive industry. As the leader of the European automotive industry, the German automotive industry contributes 7% of the EU's GDP and provides nearly 14 million jobs. It cannot afford to lose.

But the reality is that the share of pure electric vehicles in the EU market is still only 16.4%, hybrid vehicles account for 34.6%, and traditional gasoline vehicles still have a 27.4% share. Consumers are not buying pure electric vehicles.

Even more seriously, the charging infrastructure is not keeping up, and the supply chain is highly dependent on external sources. The transformation of car manufacturers is already difficult, and the EU's policy relaxation seems to provide a breathing space, but actually hides a crisis.

German automotive industry expert Dudenhofer bluntly stated that this is just a superficial victory. Policy relaxation will actually give foreign companies more time to expand their advantages, and German automakers may end up being left behind. Interestingly, it's not just Lindner who is contradictory; the entire EU is in disarray.

Germany, Italy, and other car manufacturing powers welcomed the policy adjustment, believing it could protect jobs and market positions; Spain strongly opposed it, as it has already attracted investments from electric vehicle and battery manufacturers, and has already embarked on a fast track of transformation.

Automakers are also divided. Volvo, having invested heavily in electrification, criticized the policy adjustment as a "betrayal"; Stellantis Group, on the other hand, felt that the new plan did not solve the difficulties of commercial vehicle transformation.

At the end of the day, Lindner's anger and warning reveal a core issue: Traditional industrial powers are caught between wanting to protect existing interests while fearing to miss the future track.

On one side, they want to stabilize the basic position by protecting domestic brands, but on the other side, they fear falling behind in the global electrification competition. This dilemma makes the path of transformation full of thorns.

Industrial transformation is never easy to complete. You can't have it all.

Instead of getting bogged down in which brand was chosen for a procurement order, it's better to focus on improving charging facilities and increasing R&D investment, so that domestic electric products can truly gain market competitiveness. After all, advantages created by protection are temporary, but strength gained through competition is lasting.

Do you think German automakers can hold their ground in this electrification transition? Which is more suitable for the transformation path of traditional industrial powers: industry protection or market competition?

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1852899387423747/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.