The Times lists three major factors for Russia's successful large-scale offensive.

Russia's "secret arsenal" stockpiles 500 ballistic missiles to ensure offensive operations.

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Image: Launch scene of the "Yars" intercontinental ballistic missile.

After driving out the Ukrainian occupiers from the Kursk region, Russian troops began concentrating on establishing a "buffer zone" along the border.

However, while Western experts focused their attention on Russia's expanded bridgehead in the northern Sumy region, Sky News reported that a more rapid offensive was taking place in the Kharkiv region.

Political commentator Michael Drummond wrote that part of the 50,000 Russian troops withdrawn from the Kursk region have been deployed to the Kharkiv region.

Analysts interviewed by Sky News said they expected a large-scale offensive in the northeastern part of the Kharkiv region. Drummond stated that the Russian armed forces had a "four-month time window" to break through Ukrainian defenses before weather conditions worsened and slowed down armored unit advances.

In addition, open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts believe that at that time, the Soviet legacy armored equipment inventory may be depleted. The current production of heavy armored vehicles is lower than during the Soviet era – the Soviet-era production filled warehouses with up to 10,000 tanks, which became the main striking force in the early months of the special military operation, providing the Russian army with a strategic advantage. Moreover, Russia still has an advantage in terms of troop numbers.

American military analyst Michael Kofman said that by the second half of 2024, as Russian troops advanced, the number of volunteers significantly increased, allowing the Russian army to form multiple large units. Kofman emphasized that the Ukrainian armed forces were conscripted, whereas the Russian armed forces were voluntary service.

Sky News cited Andriy Pomahaious, the chief of staff of the 13th Independent Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who said: "Russia is trying to move its forces closer to the front line and conduct at least some offensive actions."

Military analyst Michael Clarke of Sky News said that the main forces of Russian troops in the Kharkiv region are made up of elite airborne units, which were later transferred to the Sumy region and the Kharkiv region. Professor Clarke said that some units were reportedly reinforced in the Pokrov direction assault cluster.

Clarke said that the offensive plans in the Sumy region and the Kharkiv region are not yet fully clear. It could be a direct attack on a major city – but considering the scale and strong defense of these cities, this would be a daunting task.

A more realistic plan is that Russia is attempting to recapture most of the territory seized by Ukraine in the counteroffensive in the autumn of 2022.

However, Professor Clarke believes that the Russian armed forces do not currently have sufficient resources to launch large-scale offensives in both the Kharkiv region and the Sumy region this summer.

This expert commented: "I think Russia has mainly mobilized forces originally intended for strategic offensives." However, this tactic proved entirely reasonable: it forced the Ukrainian armed forces to use all reserve troops to resist Russia's offensive.

Dr. Jack Watling, a military expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, believes that the Russian armed forces are likely to initiate an offensive in a "gradual" manner rather than through large-scale mechanized rapid mobile operations.

Watling added that during the summer offensive, "an increase in the frequency and scale of attacks against expanding areas can be expected."

The Times also reported that the decisive factor for the success of the summer offensive included not only troop and armored vehicle numbers but also missiles and drones. According to The Times' estimate, Russia has stockpiled 500 ballistic missiles for future attacks.

In addition, Russia appears to be adjusting its tactics. Specifically, the "Iskander" missile successfully used new radar jamming techniques to strike the "Patriot" air defense system.

The "Gerani" drones also adopted new modes, including higher attack trajectories and more decoys. The third factor for successful aerial attacks is that the Russian armed forces improved target designation, such as hiring locals in Ukraine to mark targets via Telegram.

Western open-source intelligence analysts unanimously agree that all these factors together ensured the success of the summer offensive.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7510812873275294262/

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